Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd43f…0bb0
crypto · 1039 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$4,070 -14%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4,070 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$0
Realized−$4,070
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses431 / 729
Est. fees paid−$476
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1160 / 1039
Avg bet$28
Trades / day98.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 0 History 1160 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,382
7 days−$1,386
14 days−$2,071
30 days−$4,126
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Ashlyn Krueger Ashlyn Krueger 50¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
BNB Up or Down - May 16, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 31, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 1, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 62¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Gen.G vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner HANJIN BRION 3¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Makarska: Lucie Havlickova vs Yasmine Kabbaj Lucie Havlickova 27¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Spread: Thunder (-6.5) Thunder 15¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
LoL: Barça eSports vs ⁠Movistar KOI Fénix - Game 2 Winner Barça eSports 12¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs Hanwha Life Esports Challengers - Game 2 Winner Hanwha Life Esports Challengers 45¢ 0¢ $29 $0 −$29 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP - Map 2 Winner Heroic 56¢ 0¢ $53 $0 −$53 (-100%)
LoL: Estral Esports vs paiN Gaming Academy - Game 2 Winner Estral Esports 62¢ 0¢ $43 $0 −$43 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Down 21¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 38¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Team Vitality 7¢ 0¢ $35 $0 −$35 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 71¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Up 79¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Inner Circle Esports 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 3 Winner Dplus KIA 10¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 8, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 25, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 12 $20 −$11 -54%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 12 $8 −$6 -68%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$4 -40%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Alliance (BO3) - DraculaN Play Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$14 -681%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 19, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$23 -1585%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 12 $16 −$16 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 9, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Gr Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 5, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $27 −$27 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 11, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 28, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $5 +$17 +373%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$6 -56%
LoL: Ultra Prime vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Nirvana Jun 12 $0 +$15 +3165%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 23, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 1, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 29, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 12 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 3, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$5 -180%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 4, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 6, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$5 -174%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Jun 12 $29 −$91 -312%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 12, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 12 $19 −$29 -153%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $9 +$2 +25%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Anyone's Legend (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $0 +$141 +97602%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 8, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 63% −$1,746
crypto 36% −$1,121
other 1% +$103
weather 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Hanwha Life Esports 48¢ $47 13m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $53 30m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 100¢ $49 31m
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 75¢ $37 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner SELL Hanwha Life Esports 74¢ $72 1h
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner BUY Hanwha Life Esports 52¢ $104 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $7 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 32¢ $11 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $15 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $10 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $9 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Up 27¢ $5 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $14 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 33¢ $7 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $7 5h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $1 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 21¢ $3 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 80¢ $127 6h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 35¢ $57 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $3 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $8 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $8 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-26.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 363 -25.8% -32.8% 30% 28% -30.7%
≤30d 1087 -20.2% -27.8% 36% 33% -23.3%
≤90d 1160 -19.2% -26.9% 37% 34% -21.5%
all 1160 -19.2% -26.9% 37% 34% -21.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover98.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.9% 34% -21.5%
10% ← realistic here -33.9% 28% -29.0%
15% -40.3% 23% -35.9%
20% -46.1% 17% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records