Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:49:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
D4 0xd442…f946 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 134d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$757 (-6%) realized −$755 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate49%40W / 42L
Whale WR43%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$147per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$64est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$198now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$415
7 days−$484
14 days−$209
30 days−$223
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% −$816
other 33% +$14
world 6% +$68
weather 2% −$68
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-21.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -12.4% -20.7% 50% 43% -16.9%
≤30d 27 -12.6% -21.0% 44% 37% -12.6%
≤90d 52 -13.0% -21.3% 56% 50% -14.9%
all 82 -13.2% -21.5% 49% 45% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.5% 45% -15.8%
10% -29.0% 28% -23.8%
15% -35.9% 21% -31.2%
20% -42.1% 17% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 43% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$63 vs −$80 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

134d coverage
Net worth$198
Realized−$755
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses40 / 42
Whale WR (big bets)43%
Est. fees paid−$64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)82 / 84
History coverage134d
Avg bet$147
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 82 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France to win the second half? Jun 26 $7 +$5 +73%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $21 −$20 -97%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $404 −$400 -99%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 26 $301 +$131 +44%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $704 −$700 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $584 +$220 +38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $401 +$183 +46%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $82 −$80 -97%
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $505 −$500 -99%
England leading at halftime? Jun 23 $505 −$19 -4%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $304 +$208 +68%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 Jun 23 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $808 +$421 +52%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $702 +$68 +10%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $404 +$112 +28%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $92 +$218 +237%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $40 +$63 +158%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 +$6 +113%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $30 −$2 -5%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$1 +2%
Spread: Senegal (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $100 −$98 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $3 −$3 -97%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $10 −$10 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 4.5 Apr 27 $280 −$279 -100%
Coventry City FC vs. Wrexham AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 26 $162 +$118 +73%
Angers SCO vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $138 +$23 +17%
Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $100 +$21 +21%
Arsenal FC vs. Newcastle United FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $100 −$99 -99%
1. FC Köln vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $100 +$17 +17%
Norwich City FC vs. Swansea City AFC: O/U 2.5 Apr 25 $38 −$38 -99%
Charlton Athletic FC vs. Hull City AFC: O/U 1.5 Apr 25 $100 +$32 +32%
Fulham FC vs. Aston Villa FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $100 −$99 -99%
Leicester City FC vs. Millwall FC: O/U 1.5 Apr 24 $200 +$40 +20%
Rams Başakşehir FK vs. Kasımpaşa SK: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $239 +$27 +11%
Stade Brestois 29 vs. Racing Club de Lens: O/U 4.5 Apr 24 $200 −$199 -99%
Gaziantep FK vs. Kayserispor: O/U 4.5 Apr 20 $375 +$64 +17%
Juventus FC vs. Bologna FC 1909: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $352 +$26 +7%
Trabzonspor vs. Rams Başakşehir FK: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $285 +$67 +24%
FC Nantes vs. Stade Brestois 29: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $251 +$34 +14%
Nottingham Forest FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $260 −$258 -100%
Ipswich Town FC vs. Middlesbrough FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $228 +$31 +14%
Lille OSC vs. OGC Nice: O/U 4.5 Apr 19 $193 +$36 +18%
Brentford FC vs. Fulham FC: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $165 +$28 +17%
FC Lorient vs. Olympique de Marseille: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $171 −$5 -3%
Antalyaspor vs. Konyaspor: O/U 4.5 Apr 18 $153 +$18 +12%
AZ vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: O/U 4.5 Apr 17 $129 +$24 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $203 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 AND Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? AND BUY $11 21h
France to win the second half? BUY Yes 57¢ $7 40h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under $21 41h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 67¢ $404 42h
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 69¢ $301 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 83¢ $704 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $804 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $584 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 68¢ $401 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes $82 4d
England vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $505 4d
England leading at halftime? SELL Yes 63¢ $487 4d
England leading at halftime? BUY Yes 64¢ $505 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 99¢ $512 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 58¢ $304 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 74¢ $603 4d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 73¢ $605 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,229 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $808 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? SELL No 98¢ $770 6d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 89¢ $702 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 83¢ $516 7d
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under $10 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $310 10d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $92 10d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $404 11d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 38¢ $40 11d
Spread: France (-1.5) SELL France 87¢ $11 11d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 44¢ $29 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $198.27 · official $198.27 (match) · 135 history records