Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:13:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd449…450f
other · 195 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$14 +0%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$64 · open −$24
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$5,939
Realized+$64
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses37 / 33
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions125
Markets (closed)70 / 195
History coverage580d
Avg bet$42
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit22%
Chart Positions 125 History 70 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Africa advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 82¢ $124 $165 +$41 (+33%)
Will South Korea win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 74¢ 66¢ $141 $124 −$16 (-12%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 78¢ $106 $108 +$3 (+2%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 57¢ 81¢ $69 $97 +$28 (+41%)
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 92¢ 94¢ $92 $94 +$2 (+2%)
Will Croatia reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 80¢ $91 $92 +$1 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $91 $90 −$2 (-2%)
Will Saudi Arabia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 63¢ 66¢ $86 $89 +$3 (+4%)
Will Paraguay reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 89¢ $88 $89 +$2 (+2%)
Will Australia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 44¢ $86 $88 +$2 (+2%)
Will Switzerland reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $85 $88 +$3 (+3%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 87¢ $88 $87 −$1 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 62¢ 62¢ $87 $86 −$1 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 79¢ 84¢ $79 $84 +$4 (+6%)
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 84¢ $82 $84 +$2 (+2%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 46¢ 81¢ $46 $81 +$35 (+77%)
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 76¢ $71 $72 +$0 (+0%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 95¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+2%)
Will England win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 70¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+1%)
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 92¢ 97¢ $65 $68 +$3 (+5%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 58¢ 68¢ $58 $68 +$10 (+16%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 85¢ 86¢ $67 $67 +$0 (+0%)
Will Portugal reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 66¢ 66¢ $66 $66 +$0 (+1%)
Will Spain reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 66¢ 69¢ $63 $65 +$2 (+4%)
Will Brazil reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 69¢ 68¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Australian Open Final (M): Sinner vs. Zverev Feb 04 $151 +$8 +6%
Will Manchester United vs. Southampton end in a draw? Jan 17 $20 −$4 -19%
Will Southampton win on 2025-01-16? Jan 17 $40 $0 -0%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-01-16? Jan 17 $66 −$2 -3%
Pacers vs. Pistons Jan 17 $81 +$7 +8%
Cavaliers vs. Thunder Jan 17 $15 +$1 +5%
Suns vs. Wizards Jan 17 $10 +$1 +12%
Will Brighton win on 2025-01-16? Jan 17 $2 −$1 -55%
Will Ipswich vs. Brighton end in a draw? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Mavericks vs. Pelicans Jan 16 $50 +$3 +6%
Grizzlies vs. Spurs Jan 16 $45 −$3 -6%
Hawks vs. Bulls Jan 16 $11 +$2 +14%
Will Newcastle vs. Wolves end in a draw? Jan 16 $2 −$1 -91%
Will Leicester win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $10 +$2 +19%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $38 +$2 +5%
Will Wolves win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $6 $0 -4%
Will Everton win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $17 +$1 +6%
Will Everton vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Jan 16 $24 +$2 +7%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $19 +$3 +16%
Will Newcastle win on 2025-01-15? Jan 16 $27 $0 +0%
Will Leicester vs. Crystal Palace end in a draw? Jan 16 $16 +$2 +14%
Will Usyk beat Fury? Dec 22 $40 $0 -0%
Will the fight go the distance? Dec 22 $24 +$5 +21%
Will Fury beat Usyk? Dec 22 $60 +$4 +7%
Will Usyk vs. Fury have no official winner? Dec 22 $27 +$6 +21%
Will Atletico Madrid beat Barcelona? Dec 22 $41 +$6 +16%
Will the match between Barcelona and Atletico Madrid end in a draw? Dec 22 $27 +$1 +3%
Will Barcelona beat Atletico Madrid? Dec 22 $59 −$2 -4%
Will Crystal Palace vs. Arsenal end in a draw? Dec 21 $13 +$3 +24%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2024-12-21? Dec 21 $18 +$1 +8%
Will Arsenal win on 2024-12-21? Dec 21 $13 −$1 -6%
Sabres vs. Canadiens Dec 18 $6 −$1 -18%
Blue Jackets vs. Lightning Dec 18 $3 −$2 -83%
Memphis vs. West Virginia Dec 18 $38 +$6 +16%
Kings vs. Penguins Dec 18 $6 +$9 +133%
Bulls vs. Raptors Dec 17 $86 $0 -0%
Nuggets vs. Kings Dec 17 $141 $0 -0%
Cavaliers vs. Nets Dec 17 $21 −$1 -7%
Will Chelsea win on 2024-12-15? Dec 17 $41 +$2 +5%
Will Manchester City win on 2024-12-15? Dec 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Chelsea vs. Brentford end in a draw? Dec 17 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Manchester City vs. Manchester United end in a draw? Dec 17 $30 +$3 +9%
Will Brentford win on 2024-12-15? Dec 17 $13 +$1 +9%
Will Manchester United win on 2024-12-15? Dec 17 $44 +$6 +14%
Will Tottenham win on 2024-12-15? Dec 15 $11 −$1 -9%
Will Southampton vs. Tottenham end in a draw? Dec 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Southampton win on 2024-12-15? Dec 15 $5 $0 +10%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $27 +$3 +11%
Will Aston Villa win on 2024-12-14? Dec 15 $53 −$2 -5%
Will Nottingham Forest vs. Aston Villa end in a draw? Dec 15 $65 +$13 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% +$44
sports 17% −$18
crypto 2% +$9
world 2% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 13m
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 63¢ $32 22m
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $17 45m
Will England reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 64¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 62¢ $63 1h
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 36¢ $18 1h
Will Austria reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $5 1h
Will France reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 38¢ $19 1h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $18 1h
Will Japan reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $9 1h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA Wor BUY No 67¢ $11 2h
Will Sweden reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $3 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 BUY Yes 58¢ $58 2h
Will Canada advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 14¢ $14 2h
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $58 2h
Will Switzerland reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 74¢ $15 2h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Will Ghana reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $46 4h
Will USA reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 50¢ $25 4h
Will Morocco reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 73¢ $7 5h
Will Canada reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 53¢ $22 5h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 61¢ $0 5h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 5h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 75¢ $30 6h
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $0 7h
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 79¢ $79 7h
Will Cape Verde reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 90¢ $19 7h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 37¢ $18 7h
Will Czechia reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $48 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 70 -2.3% -11.6% 53% 23% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.6% 23% -6.5%
10% -20.1% 3% -15.4%
15% -27.8% 1% -23.6%
20% -34.9% 1% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,939.15 · official $5,939.20 (match) · 1938 history records