Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T02:22:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd44d…7c58 world 117 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate47%54W / 61L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$6
14 days+$4
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% −$5
other 22% +$5
sports 16% +$32
economics 14% −$1
politics 2% −$2
finance 1% −$41
culture 0% +$2
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.2% -8.5% 56% 0% -8.1%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 51 -0.5% -10.0% 43% 2% -9.6%
all 115 +0.2% -9.3% 47% 4% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 4% -9.7%
10% -18.0% 3% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 2% -26.2%
20% -33.2% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses54 / 61
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions2
Markets (closed)115 / 117
History coverage466d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 115 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-77%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $39 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $39 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 21 $59 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $43 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +3%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $71 +$5 +7%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $31 +$3 +8%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $36 −$5 -15%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $39 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 12 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $35 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $170 −$1 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $116 +$1 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $33 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $122 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $53 −$4 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 29 $36 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 27 $41 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $43 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $67 −$41 -60%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $57 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $47 −$3 -6%
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 20 $81 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 19 $81 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $81 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $89 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 17 $87 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 16 $81 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 16 $80 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $85 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $81 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 14 $80 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 26 $1,023 −$1 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1,057 +$29 +3%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $86 +$2 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $13 +$5 +38%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $47 +$1 +2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $986 +$1 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 23 $1,052 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $21 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 1h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $43 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $43 6h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 38¢ $39 13h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 38¢ $39 15h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 28h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 29h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $26 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $13 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $39 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $20 3d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $20 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $43 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $43 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $21 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 39¢ $18 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $41 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $41 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $32 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $6 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $38 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $14 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 55¢ $25 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 48¢ $34 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $34 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 21¢ $31 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $27 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 57¢ $3 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.99 · official $0.00 (match) · 392 history records