Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:03:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd44e…b15e
crypto · 47 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$5,905 -82%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$5,913 · open +$9
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$3,977
Realized−$5,913
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 103
Open positions5
Markets (closed)123 / 47
History coverage1d
Avg bet$153
Trades / day3456.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 5 History 123 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5,913
7 days−$5,913
14 days−$5,913
30 days−$5,913
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 56¢ 100¢ $423 $753 +$331 (+78%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 54¢ 100¢ $381 $711 +$330 (+87%)
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 61¢ 100¢ $332 $546 +$214 (+65%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 68¢ 100¢ $312 $461 +$149 (+48%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 49¢ 100¢ $198 $405 +$207 (+104%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 69¢ 100¢ $216 $311 +$95 (+44%)
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Down 69¢ 100¢ $213 $308 +$95 (+45%)
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Up 32¢ 100¢ $69 $214 +$145 (+210%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Up 68¢ 100¢ $125 $185 +$60 (+48%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 63¢ 56¢ $21 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 57¢ 52¢ $17 $15 −$2 (-10%)
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Down 71¢ 100¢ $8 $11 +$3 (+40%)
Yo FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 0¢ 92¢ $0 $9 +$9 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 45¢ 44¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-4%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 49¢ 48¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-2%)
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Up 99¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 60¢ 56¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-8%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Up 41¢ 52¢ $2 $3 +$1 (+26%)
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 51¢ 44¢ $2 $1 −$0 (-13%)
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Down 41¢ 48¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Up 38¢ 0¢ $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 25¢ 0¢ $99 $0 −$99 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $364 −$364 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $353 −$353 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $220 −$220 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $139 −$139 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $237 −$237 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $170 −$170 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $128 −$128 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 3, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 4, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$31 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 12 $99 −$99 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 17, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - June 4, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $3 −$124 -4436%
Solana Up or Down - February 28, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $0 −$559 -705416%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 24, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 24, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 30, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $56 −$55 -98%
Solana Up or Down - May 30, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $7 −$8 -114%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 6, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 12 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 31, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$82 -3293%
Solana Up or Down - March 17, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$101 -12597%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 14, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$1,226 -53303%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$9 -112%
Solana Up or Down - February 26, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 23, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - January 13, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 15, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 31, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 12 $8 −$172 -2137%
XRP Up or Down - May 30, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$16 -145%
XRP Up or Down - April 19, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 12 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$181
other 0% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $4 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $2 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $3 0m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $2 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $3 0m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $3 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 1m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $2 1m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $3 2m
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 2m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $5 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 3m
XRP Up or Down - June 12, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 3m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-61.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 123 -57.0% -61.1% 16% 6% -32.2%
≤30d 123 -57.0% -61.1% 16% 6% -32.2%
≤90d 123 -57.0% -61.1% 16% 6% -32.2%
all 123 -57.0% -61.1% 16% 6% -32.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3456.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -61.1% 6% -32.2%
10% ← realistic here -64.9% 3% -38.7%
15% -68.2% 3% -44.6%
20% -71.4% 3% -50.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,977.28 · official $3,974.98 (match) · 3500 history records