Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T11:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd44e…67e2 world 169 markets active 2h ago coverage 76d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 76d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)! high turnover
Total PnL +$282,285 (+36%) realized +$250,829 · open +$31,456
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate78%108W / 31L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$4,663per market
Trades / day44.0pace
Fees−$72est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$249,472now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 76d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 96% +$108,352
finance 2% +$2,326
other 2% +$1,907
politics 1% +$215
sports 0% +$1,018
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +15.8% +4.8% 75% 58% +6.4%
≤30d 63 +28.0% +15.8% 78% 44% -1.0%
≤90d 139 +22.6% +10.9% 78% 50% +2.6%
all 139 +22.6% +10.9% 78% 50% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover44.0 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +10.9% 50% +2.6%
10% +0.3% 27% -7.2%
15% ← realistic here -9.4% 17% -16.2%
20% -18.3% 11% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +13% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +23% · $-wt +13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$6,211) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +20% → late +25% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
13.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,215 vs −$1,629 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.69 per $1 lost it wins $2.69
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$249,472
Realized+$250,829
Unrealized+$31,456
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses108 / 31
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$72
Open positions29
Markets (closed)139 / 169
History coverage76d ⚠
Avg bet$4,663
Trades / day44.0
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 60¢ 88¢ $18,305 $26,691 +$8,387 (+46%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 99¢ $21,704 $23,265 +$1,561 (+7%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO before 2027? No 72¢ 82¢ $20,163 $23,111 +$2,949 (+15%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 69¢ 86¢ $18,479 $23,056 +$4,577 (+25%)
Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? No 57¢ 54¢ $22,732 $21,251 −$1,481 (-7%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026? No 79¢ 81¢ $18,159 $18,741 +$581 (+3%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? No 63¢ 72¢ $14,608 $16,566 +$1,958 (+13%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 94¢ 99¢ $15,827 $16,563 +$736 (+5%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 54¢ 99¢ $6,878 $12,667 +$5,788 (+84%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 95¢ $9,956 $10,520 +$564 (+6%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 55¢ 86¢ $5,033 $7,853 +$2,820 (+56%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 98¢ $5,334 $6,790 +$1,456 (+27%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 67¢ 69¢ $6,086 $6,271 +$185 (+3%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $5,739 $5,981 +$242 (+4%)
U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? No 66¢ 100¢ $3,939 $5,951 +$2,012 (+51%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 84¢ 99¢ $3,841 $4,522 +$680 (+18%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 48¢ 54¢ $3,831 $4,282 +$451 (+12%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 68¢ 69¢ $3,139 $3,214 +$75 (+2%)
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? No 60¢ 64¢ $2,855 $3,019 +$164 (+6%)
Will Trump and Putin not meet? Yes 60¢ 57¢ $2,938 $2,819 −$119 (-4%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 78¢ 80¢ $2,404 $2,471 +$67 (+3%)
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? No 77¢ 81¢ $1,815 $1,923 +$109 (+6%)
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? No 24¢ 28¢ $540 $618 +$78 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $390 $398 +$8 (+2%)
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026? No 14¢ 5¢ $863 $325 −$538 (-62%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 20 $2,306 −$634 -28%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 20 $6,480 +$13 +0%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Jun 19 $17,398 +$4,266 +24%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $17,598 +$1,771 +10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3,522 +$3,271 +93%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 15 $2,400 +$545 +23%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 18, 2026? Jun 15 $51 +$6 +11%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $276 +$224 +81%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $3,455 +$3,769 +109%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 15 $3,532 −$2,742 -78%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $8,450 +$3,616 +43%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16? Jun 15 $2,200 −$2,200 -100%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 14 $3,115 +$305 +10%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $6,289 +$8,565 +136%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 13 $6,689 −$1,707 -26%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $8,779 +$293 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11,555 −$2,220 -19%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 13 $9,691 +$457 +5%
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 +7%
Ukraine election held by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $124 +$1,553 +1248%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $55 +$6 +10%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $6,606 +$128 +2%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $121 +$62 +52%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $90 $0 +0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $3,679 −$608 -16%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $1,123 −$33 -3%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $15 +$1 +9%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 10 $3,489 +$281 +8%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 10 $800 +$56 +7%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $2,608 +$582 +22%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $4,211 +$423 +10%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $3,528 +$304 +9%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $56 +$5 +9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $1,681 −$466 -28%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $2,324 −$1,284 -55%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $10,701 −$7,706 -72%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7 +$2 +32%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $8,069 +$1,190 +15%
Will Russia capture all of Ternuvate by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $7,624 +$373 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $873 +$196 +22%
Will Russia capture Verkhnia Tersa by May 31? Jun 01 $3,958 +$239 +6%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by May 31? Jun 01 $1,970 +$405 +21%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $4,739 +$870 +18%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $18,904 +$6,758 +36%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $37,592 +$4,159 +11%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $11,527 +$1,880 +16%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $14,384 +$1,767 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? May 31 $2,640 +$120 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 29 $4,572 +$653 +14%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 29 $706 +$78 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 24¢ $288 1h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $250 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $51 2h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $41 12h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 43¢ $196 12h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $2 13h
Russia-Ukraine peace talks by September 30, 2026? BUY No 42¢ $4 14h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 6¢ $0 17h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 58¢ $132 17h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 59¢ $242 17h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $0 18h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by December 31? BUY No 78¢ $880 18h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $16 18h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $107 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 21¢ $429 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $7 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 23¢ $4 20h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? SELL No 26¢ $30 20h
Will Trump and Putin not meet? BUY Yes 56¢ $2 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 9¢ $90 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY Yes 26¢ $390 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 48¢ $483 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 54¢ $993 21h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $70 21h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL Yes 27¢ $716 21h
Trump meets with Putin by December 31? BUY No 58¢ $21 22h
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December BUY No 96¢ $1,657 22h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 23h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 32h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $6 32h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249,472.23 · official $249,465.09 (match) · 3500 history records