Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:53:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd44f…41a1 other 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 520d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$291 (+4%) realized +$291 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR59%break-even
Win rate72%33W / 13L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$141per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$436
7 days−$436
14 days−$436
30 days−$436
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$114
politics 17% −$139
crypto 14% +$201
world 5% +$110
weather 0% −$11
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +59%
net ROI/market (all)-3.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.6% -8.0% 75% 75% -24.1%
≤30d 4 +1.6% -8.0% 75% 75% -24.1%
≤90d 5 -18.7% -26.4% 60% 60% -26.0%
all 46 +7.0% -3.2% 72% 59% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.2% 59% -8.9%
10% -12.5% 41% -17.6%
15% -20.9% 35% -25.6%
20% -28.7% 17% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$100 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

520d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$291
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses33 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)46 / 46
History coverage520d
Avg bet$141
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 46 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $927 +$99 +11%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $1,000 −$905 -90%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 21 $207 +$74 +36%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? Jun 20 $582 +$296 +51%
Debt ceiling raised or suspended before June? May 11 $71 −$71 -100%
Nara & Lucky divorce in 2025? Feb 28 $11 +$2 +15%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2025? Feb 28 $5 +$8 +138%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Feb 28 $9 +$6 +70%
Hailey Bieber pregnant in 2025? Feb 28 $11 +$5 +41%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Feb 28 $15 +$4 +24%
Britney Spears tour in 2025? Feb 28 $16 +$4 +24%
One Direction reunion in 2025? Feb 28 $16 +$8 +47%
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? Feb 28 $20 +$9 +43%
Will the next UK election be called by December 31? Feb 28 $31 +$3 +11%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Feb 28 $31 +$3 +11%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Feb 28 $33 +$2 +8%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Feb 28 $126 +$74 +59%
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? Dec 10 $64 −$47 -74%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Dec 09 $187 −$73 -39%
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? Dec 04 $861 +$318 +37%
Will Ukraine join NATO before July? Nov 27 $29 +$1 +4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by June 30? Nov 27 $22 +$8 +37%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 200,000 or more betwe Nov 27 $23 +$10 +45%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by June 30? Nov 27 $33 +$4 +12%
Will anyone be charged as a result of Epstein file release? Nov 27 $49 +$8 +17%
Trump Admin confirms Aliens exist in first 100 days? Nov 27 $101 +$9 +8%
Starmer out before July? Nov 27 $114 +$15 +13%
Trump signs national abortion ban? Nov 27 $172 +$24 +14%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after March 2025 meeting? Apr 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 29 $124 +$65 +52%
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? Apr 17 $67 −$44 -66%
Will 'BIRDS OF A FEATHER' win Record of the Year? Mar 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Trump declassifies Epstein list in first 100 days? Mar 05 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Trump withdraw from Paris climate agreement in first 100 days? Mar 05 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Trump say 'DOGE' or 'Department of Government Efficiency' during Mar 05 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first week? Mar 05 $59 −$59 -100%
Will Trump say 'Elon' or 'Musk' during the 2025 State of the Union? Mar 05 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Trump say 'tariff' 5+ times times during the 2025 State of the Un Mar 05 $60 +$26 +43%
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? Mar 02 $537 +$155 +29%
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? Mar 02 $279 −$21 -8%
Elon Musk out as Head of DOGE before July? Feb 21 $3 +$9 +285%
Will the next UK election be called by June 30? Feb 16 $54 −$1 -2%
Will the next UK election be called by March 31? Feb 16 $66 +$1 +1%
Will a nuclear weapon detonate by March 31? Feb 16 $67 +$3 +5%
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1? Feb 16 $72 +$58 +82%
Will Alexander Lukashenko win the 2025 Belarus Presidential Election? Feb 03 $220 +$5 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No $41 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No $52 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No $52 1h
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No $95 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 33¢ $985 19h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 19¢ $206 24h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? SELL No 16¢ $281 24h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $308 35h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $103 35h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $206 35h
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $207 35h
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 67¢ $282 41d
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $300 61d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 50¢ $1,000 113d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $1 194d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $47 194d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? SELL No 64¢ $17 194d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $10 194d
Will Kabuto 1st Edition card hit $100 by December 31? BUY No 64¢ $7 194d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? SELL No 23¢ $114 194d
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? BUY No 37¢ $187 198d
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? BUY No 63¢ $126 199d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,178 199d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 73¢ $657 206d
Will Stable launch a token in 2025? BUY Yes 72¢ $204 206d
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? SELL No 20¢ $23 430d
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days? SELL No 76¢ $692 476d
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025? SELL No 36¢ $258 476d
Will Trump impose large tariffs in his first 6 months? BUY No 58¢ $67 490d
US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? BUY No 70¢ $20 490d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records