Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd452…5eef politics 106 markets active 2h ago coverage 145d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,010 (-2%) realized −$1,011 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate26%27W / 77L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$631per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$1,014now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$10
30 days−$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$39
other 36% +$22
sports 10% −$995
world 3% −$2
crypto 1% −$8
economics 1% +$2
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 19 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 40 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 104 -4.2% -13.3% 26% 11% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 11% -10.9%
10% -21.6% 11% -19.5%
15% -29.2% 8% -27.2%
20% -36.1% 4% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$984) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +13% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

145d coverage
Net worth$1,014
Realized−$1,011
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses27 / 77
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)104 / 106
History coverage145d
Avg bet$631
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 104 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $569 $570 +$1 (+0%)
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $444 $443 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 27 $444 −$1 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $1,174 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 19 $870 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $2,272 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $400 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $1,021 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,018 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $2,278 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 13 $1,902 −$3 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $947 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $965 −$2 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $2,637 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $981 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 02 $253 +$1 +0%
Will XRP reach $2.20 in May? Jun 02 $405 $0 +0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $375 −$1 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $293 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,635 −$2 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $325 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $1,300 −$2 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 24 $486 −$1 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 24 $642 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $1,037 −$2 -0%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? May 07 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 06 $1,009 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 04 $993 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $957 −$1 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 30 $1,121 −$1 -0%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 Apr 29 $678 +$1 +0%
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 27 $307 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $342 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $984 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $3,345 −$3 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 15 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $1,757 −$2 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $689 −$1 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 07 $83 $0 -0%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers Mar 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Nuggets vs. Knicks Mar 27 $15 −$15 -100%
Thunder vs. Lakers Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Heat vs. Hornets Mar 27 $77 −$77 -100%
Will RCD Espanyol de Barcelona vs. Real Oviedo end in a draw? Mar 27 $113 −$113 -100%
Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-03-08? Mar 27 $74 −$74 -100%
Pelicans vs. Hornets Mar 27 $63 −$63 -100%
Blackhawks vs. Jets Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spread: Nebraska Cornhuskers (-1.5) Mar 27 $711 −$711 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $444 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $443 2h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $444 5h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $569 5d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $552 7d
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $553 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $869 8d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $870 8d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $847 9d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $848 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $400 9d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $400 9d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,020 12d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,021 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 13d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,018 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,023 14d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,024 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $902 14d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $903 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $945 14d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $947 15d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $925 19d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $926 20d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $775 21d
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $776 21d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $727 23d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $728 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $963 23d
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $965 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,013.62 · official $1,013.62 (match) · 315 history records