Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:33:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd452…f542 crypto 49 markets active 2h ago coverage 515d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate81%39W / 9L
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 52% +$1
other 31% $0
tech 5% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 4% $0
politics 3% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 4 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
all 48 +0.1% -9.5% 81% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.1% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.0% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

515d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses39 / 9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)48 / 49
History coverage515d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 48 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $57 $57 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? Jun 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? May 05 $49 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? Apr 01 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? Apr 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? Mar 03 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? Mar 03 $42 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? Feb 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $28 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? Jan 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? Jan 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? Dec 03 $18 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? Nov 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Nov 04 $33 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? Oct 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? Oct 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $290 in August? Sep 02 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Sep 02 $36 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 02 $22 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? Aug 02 $25 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? Jun 03 $4 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? Jun 03 $21 $0 +0%
Trump announces the US is giving up NATO command before May? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping talk to Trump before May? May 03 $5 $0 +0%
XRP all time high in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 03 $9 $0 +1%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $10 $0 +1%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 19 $116 $0 -0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2025? Apr 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2025 World Series? Apr 11 $54 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets finish with the worst regular season record? Mar 19 $21 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after May 2025 meeting? Mar 18 $30 $0 -0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Mar 13 $28 $0 -0%
Ethereum above $2,800 on February 28? Mar 06 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $4250 by February 28 2025? Mar 06 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 by February 28, 2025? Mar 06 $29 $0 +0%
Will $Trump FDV be $35-40b on Feb 1? Feb 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Immanuel Quickley lead the NBA in Assists? Feb 19 $19 $0 -0%
Will Julius Randle lead the NBA in scoring? Feb 17 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 28 $5 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $57 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $28 in May? BUY No 100¢ $47 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $9 61d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $5 90d
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in March? BUY No 100¢ $25 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in March? BUY No 100¢ $26 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.25 in February? BUY No 100¢ $8 121d
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $42 122d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 148d
Will BNB reach $1100 in January? BUY No 100¢ $20 149d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 99¢ $28 150d
Will XRP reach $2.80 in December? BUY No 100¢ $7 180d
Will Hyperliquid hit $70 in 2025? BUY No 100¢ $15 182d
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $31 182d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of November 2025? BUY Yes 100¢ $18 210d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $27 210d
Will Ethereum reach $5400 in October? BUY No 100¢ $12 241d
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? BUY No 100¢ $33 242d
Will Solana dip to $130 in September? BUY No 100¢ $15 271d
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $30 272d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $6 300d
Will Solana reach $290 in August? BUY No 100¢ $9 302d
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? BUY No 100¢ $36 302d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $22 333d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.38 in July? BUY No 100¢ $25 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 100¢ $7 364d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 392d
Will Bitcoin dip to $85k in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 393d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $56.84 · official $56.84 (match) · 111 history records