Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:23:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd452…8f7e other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$15 (+10%) realized +$116 · open −$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%4W / 5L
Drawdown35%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit30%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 84% −$90
other 16% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% +20.5%
≤30d 9 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% +20.5%
≤90d 9 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% +20.5%
all 9 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% +20.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 44% +20.5%
10% -38.9% 33% +9.0%
15% -44.8% 33% -1.6%
20% -50.2% 33% -11.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 87% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +33% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +33% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×3.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.04 per $1 lost it wins $3.04
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$101
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses4 / 5
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown35%
Kalshi-fit30%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Over 79¢ 0¢ $101 $0 −$101 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $19 +$12 +65%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $5 +$6 +124%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$1 +13%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2 +$1 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 79¢ $100 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 83¢ $1 1h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 60¢ $19 16h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 16h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 17h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 17h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 37h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 41h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 88¢ $10 41h
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.06 · official $0.06 (match) · 18 history records