Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:25:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd453…4b1b crypto 133 markets active 2h ago coverage 130d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,319 (-36%) realized −$2,319 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -78% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -83% what you keep after slip
Net edge-83%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate17%23W / 109L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day21.1pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$190now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$5
14 days+$43
30 days−$422
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 86% −$2,241
other 11% −$23
tech 3% −$19
economics 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-79.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.4% -9.2% 100% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 35 -38.2% -44.1% 57% 3% -20.0%
≤90d 88 -74.5% -77.0% 23% 1% -35.8%
all 132 -77.8% -79.9% 17% 2% -42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -79.9% 2% -42.9%
10% ← realistic here -81.8% 2% -48.4%
15% -83.6% 2% -53.4%
20% -85.2% 2% -58.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 58% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -29% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -78% · $-wt -37% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -88% → late -67% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
20.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$22 · ×0.11 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

130d coverage
Net worth$190
Realized−$2,319
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses23 / 109
Open positions1
Markets (closed)132 / 133
History coverage130d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day21.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 132 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? No 100¢ 100¢ $190 $190 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? Jun 28 $189 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? Jun 27 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? Jun 26 $188 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? Jun 25 $187 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $186 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $185 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $184 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $183 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $182 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $180 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $128 $0 +0%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $20 +$31 +153%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $147 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $146 +$1 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $146 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $146 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 7? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 5? Jun 10 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6? Jun 10 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 2? Jun 04 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 3? Jun 04 $57 −$57 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 1? Jun 04 $65 −$65 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $39 −$39 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 22? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 28? May 30 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 26? May 30 $93 −$93 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 24? May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 24? May 25 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-10? May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 12? May 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 10? May 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 4? May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 10? May 21 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 16? May 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 6? May 21 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 11? May 21 $17 −$17 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 13? May 21 $34 −$34 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 20? May 21 $55 −$55 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 18? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 21 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 29? BUY No 100¢ $190 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 28? BUY No 100¢ $189 22h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 27? BUY No 99¢ $188 47h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 26? BUY No 100¢ $188 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $187 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 24? BUY No 99¢ $186 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 100¢ $185 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? BUY No 99¢ $184 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 99¢ $183 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? BUY Yes 99¢ $182 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $180 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $128 12d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A BUY 39¢ $20 12d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $148 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $147 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $146 15d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? BUY No 100¢ $146 16d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $146 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $146 19d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $146 20d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $145 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 7? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $190.10 · official $190.10 (match) · 2865 history records