Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
D4 0xd454…d749 crypto 63 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$381 (+3%) realized +$360 · open +$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate82%41W / 9L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$225per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$5,039now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$118
7 days+$260
14 days+$314
30 days+$314
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$335
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +15.8% +4.8% 100% 8% -6.8%
≤30d 50 +13.2% +2.4% 82% 34% -6.4%
≤90d 50 +13.2% +2.4% 82% 34% -6.4%
all 50 +13.2% +2.4% 82% 34% -6.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.4% 34% -6.4%
10% ← realistic here -7.4% 28% -15.4%
15% -16.4% 22% -23.5%
20% -24.6% 18% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +11% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$2 · ×3.84 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×17.51 per $1 lost it wins $17.51
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$5,039
Realized+$360
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses41 / 9
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions13
Markets (closed)50 / 63
History coverage11d
Avg bet$225
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? Yes 93¢ 90¢ $765 $749 −$17 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 22? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $730 $737 +$7 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $732 $732 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Yes 93¢ 95¢ $701 $717 +$16 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 24? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $511 $515 +$5 (+1%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? Yes 94¢ 97¢ $495 $510 +$15 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? Yes 96¢ 99¢ $356 $367 +$11 (+3%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? Yes 92¢ 90¢ $293 $287 −$6 (-2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? Yes 90¢ 85¢ $174 $165 −$9 (-5%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 22? No 94¢ 96¢ $149 $152 +$3 (+2%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Yes 93¢ 84¢ $58 $52 −$6 (-10%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 22? No 100¢ 99¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Yes 89¢ 92¢ $19 $19 +$1 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $286 +$14 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $240 +$3 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $422 +$15 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $300 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $200 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $610 +$19 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $689 +$47 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $378 +$14 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $1 +$4 +331%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $602 +$6 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $26 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $240 +$2 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $815 +$35 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $517 +$23 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $676 +$21 +3%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $829 +$20 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $490 +$10 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $406 +$8 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $96 +$2 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $163 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $144 +$3 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $451 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $26 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $80 +$9 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $9 +$2 +26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $317 +$46 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 14 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 14 $18 −$3 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $12 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 14 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$3 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $12 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 88¢ $26 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $132 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 28? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 92¢ $290 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 27? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $247 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 97¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $11 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $49 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $7 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $48 35h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $108 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $7 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 92¢ $33 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 91¢ $165 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $290 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 26? BUY Yes 93¢ $27 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $73 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $10 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $10 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 94¢ $359 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 95¢ $293 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 98¢ $23 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $49 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $23 36h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 96¢ $50 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,039.29 · official $5,039.29 (match) · 346 history records