Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:36:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd457…e627 crypto 1001 markets active 0h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$896 (-5%) realized −$896 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate58%578W / 423L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day13.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$141
7 days+$141
14 days+$139
30 days−$295
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,091
other 0% −$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +17.1% +6.0% 83% 71% +10.3%
≤30d 149 -1.0% -10.4% 70% 65% -15.2%
≤90d 965 -11.4% -19.9% 57% 54% -15.8%
all 1001 -9.9% -18.5% 58% 54% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 54% -15.3%
10% -26.3% 46% -23.4%
15% -33.4% 34% -30.8%
20% -40.0% 21% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$13 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$896
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses578 / 423
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1001 / 1001
History coverage96d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day13.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1001 Trades
no open positions (145 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 27 $50 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$12 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$3 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$27 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 27 $26 +$17 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 27 $51 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$6 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 27 $25 +$9 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 27 $31 +$16 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $10 +$11 +107%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $51 −$14 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 14 $3 +$3 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 13 $25 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$13 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 12 $77 −$56 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 −$25 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 12 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 12 $25 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 12 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 12 $76 −$3 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$16 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 12 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$7 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 12 $25 +$6 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 12 $26 +$10 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET SELL Down 97¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $25 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $25 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $25 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 67¢ $26 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 61¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.45 · official $45.23 (match) · 2209 history records