Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T08:01:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd458…b521
other · 44 markets active 4h ago
2.5score
+$2,675 +27%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$1,312 · open −$154
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY ⚠ High turnover
Chart Positions 15 History 32 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$84
7 days+$502
14 days+$501
30 days+$827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $605 $494 −$110 (-18%)
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $326 $324 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $71 $70 −$0 (-1%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $80 $60 −$20 (-25%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $56 $56 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $45 −$5 (-10%)
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $30 −$10 (-25%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $19 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 88¢ 94¢ $21 $23 +$1 (+7%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+12%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $20 −$20 (-50%)
Will Yann Sommer record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 97¢ $20 $19 −$0 (-2%)
Will Kim Min-jae score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 96¢ $11 $13 +$2 (+20%)
Will Ousmane Dembele be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 97¢ $10 $11 +$0 (+5%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $7 $9 +$2 (+27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,050 −$31 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $34 +$16 +45%
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $220 +$16 +7%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $76 +$1 +1%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $60 +$82 +137%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $310 +$310 +100%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $92 +$108 +118%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $2,089 +$26 +1%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? May 31 $1,216 +$17 +1%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Jean-Philippe Mateta record the most assists in the 2025-26 UEFA May 28 $64 +$6 +9%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 25 $315 +$135 +43%
Will Roma finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $12 +$1 +5%
Will AC Milan finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $42 +$3 +7%
Will Como finish in the top 4 in the 2025-26 Serie A season? May 25 $124 +$5 +4%
Will SC Freiburg qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Cham May 20 $401 +$21 +5%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? May 18 $42 −$4 -11%
Will Mallorca be relegated from La Liga after the 2025–26 season? May 18 $414 +$149 +36%
Will1. FC Heidenheim place 16th for the 2025-26 Bundesliga season? May 16 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Stuttgart finish in the top 4 of the Bundesliga 2025–26 standings May 16 $13 +$8 +60%
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? May 15 $89 +$1 +1%
Will Southampton achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the En May 14 $120 +$5 +4%
Will Middlesbrough achieve promotion from the EFL Championship to the May 13 $118 −$3 -2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 13 $37 +$9 +26%
Will Enzo Fernández be included in Argentina's official 2026 World Cup May 12 $10 $0 +1%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? May 12 $168 +$72 +43%
Will Trump visit China by May 31? May 07 $243 +$65 +27%
Will Malta win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $31 $0 -0%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Ethan Quinn vs Pablo Llamas Ruiz May 07 $84 +$2 +2%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $15 +$4 +27%
Will FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC end in a draw? May 07 $68 +$332 +488%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 04 $5 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 79% +$251
sports 15% +$536
world 3% +$310
politics 2% +$65
finance 0% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $192 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $120 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $100 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $6 4h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $4 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $18 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $59 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 5h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $21 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)+21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +57.9% +42.9% 86% 57% +15.1%
≤30d 23 +20.9% +9.4% 83% 35% +1.2%
≤90d 32 +34.2% +21.4% 84% 41% +6.1%
all 32 +34.2% +21.4% 84% 41% +6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover83.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.4% 41% +6.1%
10% ← realistic here +9.8% 38% -4.1%
15% -0.8% 28% -13.4%
20% -10.5% 16% -21.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,221.66 · official $1,221.67 (match) · 3500 history records