Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T20:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd459…9e21
other · 237 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$80 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$80 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$43
Realized−$80
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses10 / 226
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions1
Markets (closed)236 / 237
History coverage123d
Avg bet$201
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%
Chart Positions 1 History 236 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$13
14 days−$24
30 days−$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Jun 13 $131 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $277 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $407 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $110 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $74 $0 -0%
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $152 −$1 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $251 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 11 $508 −$1 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Jun 11 $102 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $143 $0 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $462 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 09 $332 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $109 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $331 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $297 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 08 $313 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 08 $53 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $533 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $335 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $334 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $184 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 07 $125 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $298 −$1 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $180 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 05 $471 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 05 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 05 $243 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $187 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $265 −$1 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $194 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 04 $180 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $300 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 03 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 03 $406 $0 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $315 $0 -0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $572 −$1 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $397 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 03 $213 $0 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 02 $230 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $250 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $132 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $413 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $378 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $614 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $128 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 43% −$35
sports 23% −$19
politics 8% −$7
economics 6% −$5
culture 6% −$5
world 6% −$5
crypto 5% −$3
tech 2% −$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $6 29m
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $49 1h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $49 6h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 8h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $50 9h
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $50 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $50 18h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $50 19h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $50 21h
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $50 22h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $50 24h
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 25h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $50 34h
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $50 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $2 35h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $48 37h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $50 38h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $50 44h
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $50 45h
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $50 2d
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 98¢ $51 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 SELL No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 BUY No 99¢ $51 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $51 3d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $51 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $41 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 97¢ $10 3d
Will New York City FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 191 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 236 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.24 · official $43.24 (match) · 1264 history records