Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T13:30:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd45c…339a world 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -1% what you keep after slip
Net edge-1%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate53%19W / 17L
Drawdown83%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$4
other 25% +$10
politics 14% $0
culture 5% $0
sports 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-0.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 50% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 13 +0.4% -9.1% 31% 0% -10.2%
all 36 +9.6% -0.9% 53% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.9% 8% -8.8%
10% -10.3% 6% -17.5%
15% -19.0% 6% -25.5%
20% -26.9% 6% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 70% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late +14% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.82 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.73 per $1 lost it wins $1.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized+$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses19 / 17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage467d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown83%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 89¢ 88¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-0%)
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+5%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 20 $3 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $46 +$4 +9%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $45 $0 -1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $127 −$2 -2%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $3 $0 +10%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $90 −$7 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 -6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $54 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $2 $0 -0%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 13 $1 $0 +3%
Will the New Orleans Saints win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 13 $2 $0 +1%
Circle IPO in 2025? Jun 06 $3 +$7 +230%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum reach $2200 in April? May 06 $2 $0 +8%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 09 $49 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 350-374 times April 4 - 11? Apr 08 $25 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Diddy in his first 100 days? Apr 07 $25 $0 +0%
Will the AFD be part of the next German government? Apr 06 $25 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard be out as Director of National Intelligence in Trum Apr 05 $25 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $25 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Apr 03 $22 $0 +0%
Trump meets with Carney in March? Apr 02 $18 $0 +1%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 30 $18 $0 -1%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 27 $18 $0 +0%
Will Trump issue an executive order on March 23? Mar 25 $18 $0 +1%
Suchir Balaji foul play determined before April? Mar 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in the next Canadian electio Mar 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $9 $0 +0%
Will Florida win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 22 $3 +$2 +74%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 18 $3 $0 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $45 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 8h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $3 10h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 92¢ $38 15h
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 90¢ $37 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $7 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $2 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 23h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 58¢ $50 25h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $3 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $43 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $46 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $46 43h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $4 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $41 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $46 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $45 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $32 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $37 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $37 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $27 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $10 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 62¢ $48 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $50 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 34¢ $10 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.61 · official $45.59 (match) · 127 history records