Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T10:50:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
D4 0xd45d…dd80 sports 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$133 (+19%) realized +$107 · open +$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +122% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +101% what you keep after slip
Net edge+101%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%3W / 2L
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$76now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$111
7 days+$111
14 days+$359
30 days+$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$388
sports 45% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+101.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +155.3% +130.9% 67% 67% +72.7%
≤30d 5 +122.3% +101.1% 60% 60% +126.8%
≤90d 5 +122.3% +101.1% 60% 60% +126.8%
all 5 +122.3% +101.1% 60% 60% +126.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +101.1% 60% +126.8%
10% +81.9% 60% +105.1%
15% +64.3% 60% +85.3%
20% +48.2% 60% +67.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 92% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +151% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +122% · $-wt +151% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$121 vs −$6 · ×20.71 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.07 per $1 lost it wins $31.07
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$76
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$26
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses3 / 2
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 14
History coverage14d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 12¢ 18¢ $50 $76 +$26 (+52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 27 $51 −$3 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $20 +$85 +414%
Exact Score: Norway 1 - 3 France? Jun 26 $51 +$29 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $101 +$248 +246%
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) Jun 13 $9 −$9 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $75.83 · official $271.14 · 28 history records