Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:39:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd45e…1c3b crypto 12 markets active 5d ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$20 (-9%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate42%5W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day50.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -21.1% -28.7% 42% 33% -17.4%
≤30d 12 -21.1% -28.7% 42% 33% -17.4%
≤90d 12 -21.1% -28.7% 42% 33% -17.4%
all 12 -21.1% -28.7% 42% 33% -17.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover50.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.7% 33% -17.4%
10% ← realistic here -35.5% 25% -25.3%
15% -41.7% 8% -32.5%
20% -47.4% 8% -39.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 69% · top 2 79% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$10 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses5 / 7
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day50.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 13 $36 −$26 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$4 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $41 −$15 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $16 −$4 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$28 +176%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 13 $16 +$3 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 13 $21 −$9 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 13 $21 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -94%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 73¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Up 11¢ $4 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET SELL Down 55¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $20 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 57¢ $13 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 56¢ $14 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 11¢ $3 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET SELL Down 19¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 55 history records