Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:01:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd45e…ed5d crypto 997 markets active 3h ago coverage 87d ⚠
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 87d only
! high turnover
Total PnL +$494 (+9%) realized +$494 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate35%352W / 645L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day33.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$12
7 days−$30
14 days−$37
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% +$211
other 9% −$49
sports 0% −$10
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+19.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 91 +13.5% +2.7% 25% 25% -19.7%
≤30d 150 +48.6% +34.5% 23% 23% -27.0%
≤90d 997 +31.9% +19.3% 35% 32% -12.4%
all 997 +31.9% +19.3% 35% 32% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +19.3% 32% -12.4%
10% ← realistic here +7.9% 29% -20.8%
15% -2.5% 25% -28.5%
20% -12.1% 21% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +32% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +36% → late +28% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.96 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$494
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses352 / 645
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)997 / 997
History coverage87d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day33.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 997 Trades
no open positions (110 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$2 -95%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 17 $13 −$7 -55%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 17 $7 +$7 +100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +274%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$3 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 -12%
XRP Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -94%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$2 +38%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 6AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 3AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -94%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$9 +176%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 16, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 16 $0 +$4 +4150%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +144%
BNB Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum above 1,790 on June 15, 7PM ET? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$5 +255%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$8 +183%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 14, 7PM ET? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$18 +841%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Ethereum above 1,720 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin above 65,400 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin above 64,800 on June 14, 6PM ET? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $0 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $2 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 0¢ $0 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 7h
Martin Baturina: 1+ goals BUY No 1¢ $1 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $0 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $0 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $1 18h
BNB Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $2 18h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records