Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T19:57:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd45f…c086 sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$15 (+0%) realized +$10 · open +$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -38% what you keep after slip
Net edge-38%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$620per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$85est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$950now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 68% −$177
other 30% +$424
world 2% −$200
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% -9.1%
≤30d 16 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% -9.1%
≤90d 16 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% -9.1%
all 16 -25.4% -32.5% 44% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -32.5% 44% -9.1%
10% -39.0% 31% -17.8%
15% -44.9% 25% -25.8%
20% -50.3% 25% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -25% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -64% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$438 vs −$336 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.01 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$950
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$5
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$85
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage6d
Avg bet$620
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 92¢ $945 $950 +$5 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $845 +$103 +12%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 21 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,007 −$370 -37%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1,227 +$192 +16%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -97%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $101 −$100 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $203 −$200 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $802 +$748 +93%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $505 −$403 -80%
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $1,006 +$246 +24%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $964 +$994 +103%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,745 −$1,730 -99%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $449 +$291 +65%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $508 +$491 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $948 33m
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $948 1h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $845 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 1 IR Iran? BUY Yes 11¢ $103 23h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 23h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 48¢ $303 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 53¢ $334 24h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $1,007 25h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? SELL No 100¢ $1,419 38h
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? BUY No 86¢ $1,227 39h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 47h
Exact Score: Germany 0 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $101 47h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $203 3d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $802 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $102 4d
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 67¢ $505 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? SELL No 99¢ $1,253 4d
Exact Score: England 2 - 2 Croatia? BUY No 79¢ $1,006 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,958 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $964 5d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 72¢ $1,745 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $999 5d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $449 5d
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $508 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $950.19 · official $950.19 (match) · 28 history records