Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd461…c8de crypto 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$6 (-2%) realized −$7 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate61%82W / 53L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day23.9pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 69% −$7
finance 11% −$2
other 10% +$1
tech 10% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 135 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 28% -12.1%
≤30d 135 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 28% -12.1%
≤90d 135 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 28% -12.1%
all 135 -8.2% -16.9% 61% 28% -12.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 28% -12.1%
10% ← realistic here -24.9% 27% -20.5%
15% -32.1% 24% -28.2%
20% -38.8% 21% -35.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.55 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses82 / 53
Open positions12
Markets (closed)135 / 147
History coverage6d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day23.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? Up 98¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? Up 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+7%)
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? Up 94¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? Up 93¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 96¢ 94¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Down 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 53 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down on June 15? Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$2 +190%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$4 +374%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 5h
NVIDIA (NVDA) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $5 9h
Solana Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 99¢ $5 9h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $5 10h
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 93¢ $5 10h
Ethereum Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 96¢ $5 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $5 11h
XRP Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 98¢ $5 11h
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 94¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 15? BUY Up 97¢ $5 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 22¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $1 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $1 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $1 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.88 · official $35.88 (match) · 234 history records