Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:54:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd465…a2ee crypto 163 markets active 1h ago coverage 15d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$173 (+5%) realized +$173 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%69W / 94L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day29.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$326
7 days+$272
14 days+$279
30 days+$249
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$258
sports 3% −$6
other 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 97 +0.5% -9.1% 43% 43% +1.4%
≤30d 163 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 42% -1.8%
≤90d 163 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 42% -1.8%
all 163 -4.2% -13.3% 42% 42% -1.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 42% -1.8%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 40% -11.2%
15% -29.2% 38% -19.7%
20% -36.1% 32% -27.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$12 · ×1.66 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$173
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses69 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)163 / 163
History coverage15d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day29.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 163 Trades
no open positions (31 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $41 +$43 +104%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $108 +$90 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $62 −$35 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$14 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 25 $52 +$83 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$26 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $72 +$66 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $23 −$20 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $30 −$28 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$54 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 25 $80 +$71 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 25 $99 +$76 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$30 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $72 −$68 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 25 $9 −$9 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$20 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 25 $42 −$29 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 25 $68 +$73 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 25 $75 −$32 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 25 $53 −$28 -52%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 25 $51 +$25 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $47 +$63 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$16 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$32 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 25 $47 −$1 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 25 $31 −$20 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 +$17 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$13 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 25 $41 +$16 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $40 +$6 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $48 +$11 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $61 +$24 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 25 $42 +$60 +144%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$18 -84%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 25 $65 −$40 -62%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 24 $12 −$11 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 24 $7 −$6 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $8 −$1 -8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$9 +280%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +102%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$1 -59%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -81%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$6 +198%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 +$3 +74%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 24 $3 +$1 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 24 $4 −$4 -90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 30¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 25¢ $27 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET SELL Up 2¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET SELL Down 2¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 12¢ $20 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 532 history records