Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:47:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd468…f6fe sports 765 markets active 1h ago coverage 144d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,269 (+6%) realized +$2,410 · open −$141
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate41%309W / 447L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day15.1pace
Fees−$428est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$485
7 days−$362
14 days−$201
30 days+$96
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% +$432
crypto 26% +$1,028
other 1% +$7
world 0% −$1
politics 0% +$12
finance 0% +$14
weather 0% +$5
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-6.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 76 -21.9% -29.3% 32% 30% -14.0%
≤30d 226 +2.6% -7.2% 40% 39% -8.9%
≤90d 556 +6.3% -3.9% 41% 40% -7.5%
all 756 +3.8% -6.1% 41% 40% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.1% 40% -5.8%
10% -15.1% 39% -14.8%
15% -23.3% 38% -23.0%
20% -30.8% 35% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$59 vs −$37 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

144d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized+$2,410
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses309 / 447
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Est. fees paid−$428
Open positions9
Markets (closed)756 / 765
History coverage144d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day15.1
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 756 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 67¢ 78¢ $65 $75 +$10 (+16%)
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) FURIA 51¢ 38¢ $82 $61 −$21 (-26%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner FURIA 27¢ 18¢ $60 $40 −$20 (-34%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner FURIA 51¢ 48¢ $41 $38 −$3 (-7%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs FURIA 33¢ 18¢ $68 $37 −$32 (-46%)
Games Total: O/U 4.5 Over 37¢ 33¢ $18 $16 −$2 (-11%)
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) Paper Rex 48¢ 27¢ $29 $16 −$13 (-44%)
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 5¢ 2¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner FURIA 28¢ 0¢ $58 $0 −$58 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $43 −$43 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 20 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 19 $524 +$1,076 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 19 $313 −$313 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 19 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 19 $112 −$112 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 19 $18 −$18 -100%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $5 −$1 -21%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 19 $10 −$5 -52%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $30 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 19 $206 +$142 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 19 $516 +$417 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 19 $626 −$626 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 19 $311 +$298 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 19 $1,019 +$56 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 19 $377 −$377 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 19 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 19 $207 −$207 -100%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 19 $11 −$4 -33%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $32 +$38 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $52 +$36 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 +$36 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$31 +625%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $11 +$84 +791%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 16 $57 −$57 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 16 $155 +$107 +69%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 18¢ $18 37m
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY FURIA 35¢ $21 44m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 23¢ $14 58m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 35¢ $43 59m
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL FURIA 38¢ $24 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 27¢ $14 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $5 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 10¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $0 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $6 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 24¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 3 Winner BUY FURIA 51¢ $41 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 52¢ $53 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY FURIA 41¢ $42 3h
Games Total: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 37¢ $19 3h
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) BUY FURIA 61¢ $62 3h
Map Handicap: PR (-1.5) vs Leviatán Esports (+1.5) BUY Paper Rex 48¢ $29 3h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO5) - VCT Masters London Pla BUY Paper Rex 67¢ $66 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $51 31h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 19¢ $7 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 19¢ $1 44h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Vitality 59¢ $35 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $47 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $15 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $20 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $285.24 · official $285.24 (match) · 3055 history records