Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd469…da24
other · 42 markets active 164d ago
0.0score
+$32,518 +16%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$32,515 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized+$32,515
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses29 / 13
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)42 / 42
History coverage86d
Avg bet$4,965
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 0 History 42 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jan 01 $1 +$1 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 01 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jan 01 $5 +$5 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jan 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jan 01 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Dec 31 $50 +$31 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Dec 31 $20 +$4 +18%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? Dec 18 $10,171 +$256 +2%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? Dec 11 $34,171 +$5,368 +16%
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? Dec 11 $4,416 +$466 +11%
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31? Dec 11 $606 −$4 -1%
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? Dec 11 $10,401 −$192 -2%
Xi Jinping out before 2027? Dec 11 $20,000 −$264 -1%
Will Atlas have a Windows app live by December 31? Dec 11 $10 +$7 +67%
GPT ads by December 31? Dec 10 $3,002 +$123 +4%
Will GPT-6 be released by December 31? Dec 10 $3,900 −$4 -0%
Trump out as President before 2027? Dec 03 $1,000 +$30 +3%
Trump out as President by March 31? Dec 03 $2,000 +$38 +2%
US recession in 2025? Dec 03 $500 +$8 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Dec 03 $2,000 +$18 +1%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 22? Nov 19 $3,913 +$306 +8%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 19 $4,500 +$1,436 +32%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 30? Nov 19 $26,266 +$5,420 +21%
TikTok sale announced in 2025? Nov 15 $809 −$628 -78%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by November 15? Nov 15 $22,625 +$1,426 +6%
Warriors vs. Kings Nov 06 $900 +$116 +13%
Spurs vs. Lakers Nov 06 $3,727 +$423 +11%
Thunder vs. Trail Blazers Nov 06 $400 −$329 -82%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $300 +$6 +2%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 06 $1,158 +$37 +3%
Will Club Brugge KV win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $600 −$563 -94%
Will Olympique de Marseille vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? Nov 05 $100 −$89 -89%
Will FC Internazionale Milano win on 2025-11-05? Nov 05 $500 −$3 -1%
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7? Nov 05 $4,000 +$7 +0%
Will Israel strike Gaza on November 4? Nov 05 $2,000 +$3 +0%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2025-11-04? Nov 05 $921 +$40 +4%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released by October 31? Nov 01 $30,143 +$946 +3%
TikTok sale announced by October 31? Oct 27 $485 −$75 -16%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Oct 27 $200 +$9 +4%
OpenAI browser by October 31? Oct 22 $11,953 +$18,189 +152%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on October 7 Oct 08 $499 +$2 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from September 30 to October 7, 202 Oct 08 $200 +$2 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 65% +$8,980
tech 27% +$23,325
politics 3% +$74
sports 2% +$122
world 2% +$21
economics 0% +$8
weather 0% +$2
crypto 0% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET SELL Down 17¢ $2 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $2 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $10 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 32¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 1, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $10 163d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $20 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $45 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $10 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $20 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET SELL Down 50¢ $36 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $20 164d
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 31, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $20 164d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31? BUY Yes 98¢ $6,000 179d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3,230 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $36,310 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? BUY Yes 94¢ $603 184d
Will Atlas introduce ads by December 31? SELL No 94¢ $603 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? BUY Yes 92¢ $4,410 184d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? SELL No 93¢ $4,410 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $655 184d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? SELL No 97¢ $654 184d
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 15? SELL No 97¢ $1 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model by December 13? BUY Yes 92¢ $32 184d
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on December 11? BUY Yes 88¢ $542 184d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 42 -1.1% -10.6% 69% 29% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.6% 29% +4.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.1% 14% -5.4%
15% -26.9% 12% -14.6%
20% -34.1% 12% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 550 history records