Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:02:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd46d…e909 sports 21 markets active 172d ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate57%12W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day16.7pace
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 99% $0
sports 1% +$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 21 -9.7% -18.3% 57% 48% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover16.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 48% -9.5%
10% -26.1% 33% -18.2%
15% -33.3% 33% -26.1%
20% -39.8% 29% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses12 / 9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage13d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day16.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? Dec 25 $3,353 $0 +0%
49ers vs. Colts Dec 25 $1 +$1 +45%
Jets vs. Avalanche Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bengals vs. Dolphins Dec 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Raiders vs. Texans Dec 22 $1 $0 +11%
Kings vs. Panthers Dec 19 $2 −$2 -100%
LoL: FRK vs Ultra Prime (BO3) Dec 19 $1 $0 +10%
Knicks vs. Pacers Dec 19 $1 +$1 +56%
Rams vs. Seahawks Dec 19 $4 +$3 +82%
Will Rayo Vallecano de Madrid win on 2025-12-15? Dec 17 $1 +$1 +54%
Blackhawks vs. Maple Leafs Dec 17 $2 +$1 +52%
Commanders vs. Giants Dec 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bills vs. Patriots Dec 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Cardinals vs. Texans Dec 15 $1 $0 +20%
Raiders vs. Eagles Dec 15 $3 $0 +15%
Chargers vs. Chiefs Dec 15 $2 +$5 +233%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Natus Vincere (BO3) Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Girona FC win on 2025-12-12? Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Kraken vs. Utah Dec 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Pacers vs. 76ers Dec 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Warriors Dec 14 $3 +$4 +117%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 171d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes $44 173d
Will Trump nominate Janet Yellen as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes $44 173d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 237 history records