Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:18:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd472…4620 sports 168 markets active 1h ago coverage 357d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$5 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate72%112W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 33% −$2
world 18% −$2
tech 18% −$6
other 14% +$10
politics 6% −$6
culture 5% −$1
crypto 5% +$1
finance 1% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-19.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 51 -43.2% -48.6% 51% 18% -34.4%
≤30d 51 -43.2% -48.6% 51% 18% -34.4%
≤90d 51 -43.2% -48.6% 51% 18% -34.4%
all 155 -11.3% -19.7% 72% 28% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.7% 28% -11.3%
10% -27.4% 17% -19.8%
15% -34.4% 9% -27.5%
20% -40.9% 5% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -28% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

357d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses112 / 43
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions13
Markets (closed)155 / 168
History coverage357d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 155 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
OpenAI IPO before 2027? No 48¢ 53¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+10%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Yes 45¢ 44¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-4%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 94¢ 93¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 91¢ 90¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-1%)
Anthropic IPO before 2027? Yes 84¢ 80¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-5%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? No 11¢ 22¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+105%)
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-5%)
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage 2 - Group B Gerald 1¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+65%)
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? Yes 10¢ 2¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-77%)
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-86%)
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Will anyone say "iPhone" 100+ times during Apple launch event on Septe Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Secondary tariff" or "Sanction" during conference with Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Russia" or "Ukraine" 15+ times during conference with Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Major cyberattack on Iran in June? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on July 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Ceasefire" 3+ times during conference with Putin on Au Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin above $112K on September 5? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kai Cenat hit 1m Twitch subscribers during MAFIATHON 3? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump release more Epstein files in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will anyone say or "Artificial Intelligence" during Apple launch event Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Severance win the Emmy for Outstanding Drama Series? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump impose more sanctions on Russia by September 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Trump pause or remove 100k H-1B policy by October 31? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Million / Billion / Trillion" 10+ times during confere Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Greed" 2+ times during Fighting Oligarchy tow Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will anyone say "Steve Jobs" during Apple launch event on September 9? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Kyiv" during conference with Putin on August 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bernie Sanders say "Putin" during Fighting Oligarchy town hall on Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Xi Jinping out before October? Jun 12 $1 $0 +3%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by October 31? Jun 12 $1 $0 +4%
Will Diddy be sentenced to no prison time? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Xi Jinping out in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump say "Fuck" during September? Jun 12 $1 $0 +8%
Will Trump say "Taylor Swift" during September? Jun 12 $1 $0 +10%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +19%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +2%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Jun 12 $1 $0 +20%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Jun 12 $1 $0 +27%
Will another MrBeast video get 55m+ day 1 views by September 30? Jun 12 $1 $0 +28%
Will Elon Musk win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $2 $0 +2%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Septe Jun 12 $2 $0 +8%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jun 12 $3 $0 +3%
Will China invade Taiwan in 2025? Jun 12 $3 $0 +4%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Jun 12 $3 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before October? Jun 12 $5 $0 +3%
Nuclear weapon detonation before October? Jun 12 $10 $0 +3%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 200 ( Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will MrBeast's next video get between 51 and 52 million views on day 4 BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 1¢ $0 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 3¢ $0 1h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $9 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 3¢ $0 1h
Will MrBeast's next video get 52 million or more views on day 4? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 1h
StarCraft II: Gerald vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Gerald 3¢ $0 1h
Will Trump meet with Mohammed bin Salman in June 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 50¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL K27 50¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY K27 40¢ $2 2h
StarCraft II: Rogue vs Solar (BO3) - WardiTV Championship Group Stage BUY Rogue 1¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof SELL 100 Thieves 40¢ $2 2h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 27¢ $1 2h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $10 4h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 4h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes 3¢ $0 3d
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY Yes 3¢ $0 4d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 94¢ $9 4d
Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026? BUY No 11¢ $1 4d
Anthropic IPO before 2027? BUY Yes 84¢ $9 4d
OpenAI IPO before 2027? BUY No 48¢ $6 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.05 · official $70.07 (match) · 407 history records