Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:18:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
D4 0xd474…da47 other 1609 markets active 3h ago coverage 104d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 104d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$16 (+0%) realized +$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate100%1606W / 3L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day15.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$4
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% +$16
sports 44% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
finance 0% $0
weather 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 274 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 723 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 1369 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
all 1609 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 1% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 1% -9.3%
10% -18.0% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.2% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

104d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses1606 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1609 / 1609
History coverage104d ⚠
Avg bet$5
Trades / day15.5
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1609 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-6.5) vs UNO MILLE (+6.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-6.5) vs largadosypelados (+6.5) Jun 29 $5 $0 +0%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Acend (+3.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 1 AA Ponte Preta? Jun 28 $4 $0 +0%
Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the South Afr Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Olympic Dcheira 1st Half O/U Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Wydad Athletic Club 2 - 3 Olympic Dcheira? Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-3.5) vs Donstu Esports (+3.5) Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIF Jun 28 $3 $0 +1%
Coppa il Mondo T10: Friends XI vs Pralboino Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana Jun 28 $5 $0 +3%
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Trincão: 1+ shots Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Jaminton Campaz: 1+ assists Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Luka Modrić: 1+ shots on target Jun 28 $5 $0 +0%
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA W Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jay Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will MrBeast say "Cheat" or "Cheater" during his next YouTube video? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs UNO MILLE (+3. Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Tied after 5 innings? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Game 1: Both Teams Beat Roshan? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-3.5) vs MIBR Academy (+3.5) Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Honor of Kings: AG Super Play vs Rogue Warriors - Game 2 Winner Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Mallorca Championships: Completed Match: Goransson/King vs Arribage/Ol Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will anyone say "Enough" during Love Island E21? Jun 27 $5 $0 +1%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ shots on target Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Trezeguet: 2+ shots on target Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Ramin Rezaeian: 1+ goals + assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Hamza Abdelkarim: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals + assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Jeremy Doku: 2+ goals + assists Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Alexis Saelemaekers: 1+ goals Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Adel: 5+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Ibrahim Adel: 2+ goals Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Kevin De Bruyne: 2+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Nico Williams: 1+ shots Jun 27 $5 $0 +0%
Troy Johnston: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $4 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-6.5) vs UNO MILLE (+6.5) BUY UNO MILLE 100¢ $5 3h
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: ShindeN (-6.5) vs largadosypelados (+6.5) BUY largadosypelados 100¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: AC Goianiense 3 - 1 AA Ponte Preta? BUY No 100¢ $4 7h
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Inner Circle Esports (-3.5) vs Acend (+3.5) BUY Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $5 7h
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Under 100¢ $5 7h
Who will finish higher: Albon or Jr.? BUY Albon 100¢ $5 8h
Will the announcers say "Hattrick" or "Hat Trick" during the South Afr BUY Yes 100¢ $5 9h
Wydad Athletic Club vs. Olympic Dcheira: Olympic Dcheira 1st Half O/U BUY Over 100¢ $5 9h
Exact Score: Wydad Athletic Club 2 - 3 Olympic Dcheira? BUY No 100¢ $5 9h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Atreides (-3.5) vs Donstu Esports (+3.5) BUY Atreides 100¢ $5 10h
Will Max Verstappen achieve the fastest lap at the 2026 F1 Austrian Gr BUY No 100¢ $5 11h
Will the announcers say "Crossbar" during the Colombia vs Portugal FIF BUY No 99¢ $3 13h
Coppa il Mondo T10: Friends XI vs Pralboino BUY Pralboino 100¢ $5 14h
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas - Game 1 Winner BUY FaZe Vegas 100¢ $5 15h
Will the announcers say "Corner" 10+ times during the Croatia vs Ghana BUY Yes 97¢ $5 17h
Riyad Mahrez: 1+ goals + assists BUY Yes 100¢ $5 24h
Thiago Almada: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 24h
Jaminton Campaz: 1+ assists BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Trincão: 1+ shots BUY No 100¢ $5 26h
Luka Modrić: 1+ shots on target BUY No 100¢ $5 28h
Ante Budimir: 1+ goals BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Panama vs. England: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 100¢ $5 29h
Panama vs. England: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Under 100¢ $5 29h
Will the game go to extra innings?: Texas Rangers vs. Toronto Blue Jay BUY No 100¢ $5 29h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 100¢ $5 30h
Will the announcers say "Champion" during the Panama vs England FIFA W BUY Yes 100¢ $5 31h
Will MrBeast say "Cheat" or "Cheater" during his next YouTube video? BUY No 100¢ $5 32h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox: Tied after 5 innings? BUY No 100¢ $5 33h
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Bounty Hunters Esports (-3.5) vs UNO MILLE (+3. BUY UNO MILLE 100¢ $5 34h
Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? BUY Under 100¢ $5 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records