Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T12:31:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
D4 0xd475…825d other 22 markets active 3h ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$451 (+30%) realized +$404 · open +$47
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR18%break-even
Win rate18%3W / 14L
Drawdown54%max
Avg bet$68per market
Trades / day1.6pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$60
7 days+$499
14 days+$415
30 days+$420
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 80% +$569
world 6% −$93
sports 6% −$16
culture 6% +$3
crypto 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +18%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -2.0% -11.3% 13% 13% +56.0%
≤30d 17 -6.5% -15.4% 18% 18% +38.1%
≤90d 17 -6.5% -15.4% 18% 18% +38.1%
all 17 -6.5% -15.4% 18% 18% +38.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 18% +38.1%
10% -23.5% 12% +24.9%
15% -30.9% 12% +12.8%
20% -37.7% 12% +1.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 95% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +53% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt +53% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +95% → late -97% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$356 vs −$46 · ×7.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.65 per $1 lost it wins $1.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$711
Realized+$404
Unrealized+$47
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses3 / 14
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions5
Markets (closed)17 / 22
History coverage18d
Avg bet$68
Trades / day1.6
Drawdown54%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $457 $522 +$64 (+14%)
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 14¢ $87 $90 +$3 (+4%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $90 $64 −$26 (-29%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 19¢ 36¢ $10 $19 +$9 (+91%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? Jun 19 $51 −$50 -97%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $205 −$200 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $64 −$63 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $18 −$17 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $103 −$100 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$8 -83%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 16 $10 −$9 -92%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $103 +$1,008 +982%
Spread: Spain (-4.5) Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$54 +262%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $26 −$25 -98%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 03 $25 +$5 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $64 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 3 Morocco? BUY Yes $51 16h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 16h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 29¢ $64 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $18 2d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Spread: Portugal (-3.5) BUY Portugal 14¢ $15 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $178 3d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? SELL Yes $2 3d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? SELL Yes $1 3d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes $103 3d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $45 4d
Spread: Spain (-4.5) BUY Spain 16¢ $36 4d
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $41 6d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 6d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $51 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 74¢ $84 12d
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 15d
U.S. evacuates Beirut Embassy by June 30? BUY Yes $10 16d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $25 17d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 17d
Will Toy Story 5 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $26 18d
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? BUY Yes $10 18d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $41 18d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $205 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $711.23 · official $701.32 · 51 history records