Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:47:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd475…9fb4 sports 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,619 (-46%) realized −$1,619 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -32% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate27%3W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$54
7 days−$1,550
14 days−$1,550
30 days−$1,550
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% −$1,310
finance 18% −$79
sports 18% −$239
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-38.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 30% 30% -58.2%
≤30d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 30% 30% -58.2%
≤90d 10 -34.3% -40.5% 30% 30% -58.2%
all 11 -32.3% -38.7% 27% 27% -51.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -38.7% 27% -51.1%
10% -44.6% 18% -55.8%
15% -49.9% 18% -60.0%
20% -54.9% 18% -64.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 89% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -55% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -32% · $-wt -47% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$66 vs −$228 · ×0.29 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,619
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses3 / 8
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage100d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions (4 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $103 +$22 +22%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $492 −$41 -8%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $79 −$34 -44%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,219 −$936 -77%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $225 −$195 -87%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $138 −$135 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $113 +$68 +60%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $312 −$305 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 +$107 +104%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 09 $650 −$79 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 9¢ $125 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $103 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 58¢ $450 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 60¢ $188 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 23h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 4¢ $45 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 7¢ $79 47h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 18¢ $283 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 74¢ $224 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 79¢ $795 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 6¢ $29 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $53 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $2 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $150 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $0 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $3 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 15¢ $16 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 6¢ $103 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 5¢ $26 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 6¢ $19 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $94 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $16 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 30¢ $64 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 SELL Over 31¢ $101 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $66 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $7 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 20¢ $27 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 46 history records