Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd476…997f politics 9 markets active 0h ago coverage 249d
RISKYcopy with care politics specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$13 (-2%) realized −$13 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate25%2W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$91per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 89% −$2
economics 6% $0
other 4% −$12
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-20.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 4 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 4 -4.9% -14.0% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 8 -12.6% -20.9% 25% 0% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.9% 0% -11.0%
10% -28.5% 0% -19.5%
15% -35.4% 0% -27.3%
20% -41.7% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.01 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

249d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$13
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses2 / 6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage249d
Avg bet$91
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $169 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2 $0 -19%
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $357 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 21 $199 $0 -0%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Feb 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? Feb 11 $15 $0 +0%
USDT depeg in 2025? Nov 19 $16 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 16 $49 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 2m
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 1h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 1h
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $168 2h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 3h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $188 4h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $189 5h
Will Chris Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $169 6h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $199 6h
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $199 7h
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 131d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? SELL No 95¢ $15 131d
Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? BUY No 95¢ $15 187d
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? BUY Yes 84¢ $15 214d
USDT depeg in 2025? SELL No 99¢ $16 214d
USDT depeg in 2025? BUY No 98¢ $16 228d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? SELL No 100¢ $49 248d
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after October 2025 meeting? BUY No 100¢ $49 248d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.57 · official $1.57 (match) · 19 history records