Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T00:38:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd477…6453 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +42% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate51%21W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
other 27% +$1
politics 10% $0
crypto 5% −$1
economics 3% −$2
weather 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)+28.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +4.2% -5.8% 33% 33% -7.4%
≤30d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 7% -9.1%
≤90d 14 -0.9% -10.3% 29% 7% -9.1%
all 41 +41.9% +28.4% 51% 5% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +28.4% 5% -9.4%
10% +16.1% 2% -18.0%
15% +4.9% 2% -26.0%
20% -5.4% 2% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +42% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +95% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses21 / 20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage470d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $41 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $14 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 22 $13 +$2 +12%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 08 $39 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $36 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $71 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 31 $39 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $37 −$1 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 30 $65 +$3 +5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 30 $66 −$1 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $2 −$1 -26%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $38 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Jun 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will another driver finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Jun 24 $0 $0 +140%
Will Kim Jong Un be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 10 $12 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2025 French Open? Jun 08 $12 $0 +3%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jun 06 $12 $0 -2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 60-65% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 04 $1 $0 +2%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $11 +$1 +5%
Will Hong Joon-pyo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? May 08 $12 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in May? May 07 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the Western Conference? May 06 $12 $0 +3%
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense in Trump's first 100 Apr 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell be out as Federal Reserve Chair in Trump's first 10 Apr 16 $13 $0 -0%
Will Justin Thomas win The 2025 Masters? Apr 15 $12 $0 +4%
Will Tim Stokely buy TikTok before July? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. be out as Secretary of Health and Human Ser Apr 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 07 $14 $0 -0%
Will Victor Ponta win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will 'Alto Knights' gross less than 5-7m on opening weekend? Mar 25 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elon tweet 600-624 times March 14-21? Mar 21 $13 $0 +3%
Will Jerome Powell say "Good Afternoon" during the March meeting? Mar 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 16 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum above $2,200 on March 14? Mar 13 $14 $0 +1%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 12 $15 +$1 +5%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $15 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $41 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $41 1h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $7 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 8h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $14 11h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 28h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 28h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $4 15d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $23 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $13 17d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $36 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 18d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $39 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $16 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $36 18d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $12 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $24 19d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $35 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $6 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 47¢ $33 23d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 47¢ $39 23d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $4 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $0 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $31 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $33 24d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 51¢ $4 24d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 114 history records