Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:26:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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D4 0xd47a…67fa sports 715 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$335 (-3%) realized −$242 · open −$93
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate49%344W / 356L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$200now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$156
7 days−$191
14 days−$116
30 days−$244
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$254
other 9% −$233
world 1% +$8
crypto 0% +$24
politics 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 136 -3.6% -12.7% 54% 52% -14.3%
≤30d 512 +1.3% -8.4% 53% 50% -11.8%
≤90d 700 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 47% -12.7%
all 700 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 47% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 47% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 45% -21.1%
15% -28.2% 42% -28.7%
20% -35.2% 38% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$13 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$200
Realized−$242
Unrealized−$93
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses344 / 356
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions15
Markets (closed)700 / 715
History coverage42d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 700 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Connecticut Sun 47¢ 48¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Phoenix Mercury 28¢ 28¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+2%)
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Under 54¢ 55¢ $22 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 52¢ $22 $22 −$0 (-1%)
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 56¢ $22 $20 −$3 (-12%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 34¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-38%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Atlanta Braves 49¢ 54¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+9%)
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 Under 59¢ 60¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BetBoom Team 46¢ 46¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 17¢ 6¢ $30 $11 −$19 (-62%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 7¢ 2¢ $8 $2 −$6 (-75%)
Croatia leading at halftime? Yes 17¢ 2¢ $15 $2 −$13 (-89%)
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Detroit Tigers 50¢ 2¢ $15 $1 −$14 (-95%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 49¢ 57¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+17%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 55¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 338 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $23 +$25 +109%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $30 +$12 +39%
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $12 −$12 -99%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $23 +$6 +26%
Austria leading at halftime? Jun 17 $23 +$20 +86%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $23 +$10 +46%
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $30 +$30 +97%
HSBC Championships: Kamil Majchrzak vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 16 $30 +$17 +55%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $23 +$25 +109%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Vici Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 16 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$1 -5%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 16 $23 +$19 +83%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 16 $15 +$17 +109%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 +$19 +124%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $23 +$32 +140%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 16 $30 +$24 +78%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $23 +$21 +93%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $31 −$2 -7%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 +$1 +3%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $15 +$9 +57%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 1 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$20 +87%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$17 +55%
LoL: Solary vs Galions - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $23 −$22 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Top Esports Challenger vs KT Rolster Challengers - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $30 +$1 +4%
Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Game Master - Game 2 Winner Jun 15 $23 +$9 +42%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $15 −$15 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $23 +$20 +86%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$32 +105%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $38 +$31 +83%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
LoL: Galions vs Eintracht Spandau - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $30 +$6 +18%
LoL: Solary vs UCAM Esports Club - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $38 −$37 -98%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
LoL: RED Canids vs LOS - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 $0 -3%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $15 +$20 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 48¢ $8 26m
Croatia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 17¢ $15 28m
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $31 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $14 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $8 1h
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 56¢ $30 3h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $23 3h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 4h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 55¢ $30 4h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 53¢ $23 4h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 50¢ $15 4h
Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 69¢ $12 7h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Phoenix Mercury 28¢ $23 8h
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Connecticut Sun 47¢ $23 8h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $23 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 77¢ $15 10h
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 Academy 67¢ $15 10h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers - Game 2 Winner BUY Dplus KIA Challengers 69¢ $15 12h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Refuser 79¢ $23 16h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $8 16h
Austria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 53¢ $15 16h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $8 19h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $8 22h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $23 23h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $23 23h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY BetBoom Team 46¢ $15 23h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 28h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $23 29h
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 57¢ $23 29h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 46¢ $14 30h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $199.55 · official $199.69 (match) · 1227 history records