Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:20:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd47c…3f0e crypto 451 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1254 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$40,469 (+134%) realized +$40,469 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -60% what you keep after slip
Net edge-60%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate28%237W / 598L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day1254.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$3,498
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1254 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-53.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 835 -48.3% -53.3% 28% 23% -22.6%
≤30d 835 -48.3% -53.3% 28% 23% -22.6%
≤90d 835 -48.3% -53.3% 28% 23% -22.6%
all 835 -48.3% -53.3% 28% 23% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1254.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -53.3% 23% -22.6%
10% ← realistic here -57.7% 19% -30.0%
15% -61.8% 14% -36.8%
20% -65.6% 11% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +3% → late -100% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$21 · ×1.41 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.56 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$40,469
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses237 / 598
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)835 / 451
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$67
Trades / day1254.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 835 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 21, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 9, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 18 $59 −$59 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $36 −$36 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $41 −$41 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 18 $86 −$86 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 20, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $0 $0 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 14, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 21, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 16, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 13, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - May 16, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $0 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $5 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $17 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Down 5¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $41 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $6 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $8 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records