Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:53:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd47d…1f6f crypto 731 markets active 0h ago coverage 13d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (218 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$127 (-2%) realized −$127 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate90%688W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day218.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$429
7 days−$397
14 days−$401
30 days−$401
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$45
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (218 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 511 -7.0% -15.8% 89% 5% -16.9%
≤30d 764 -5.5% -14.5% 90% 5% -15.0%
≤90d 764 -5.5% -14.5% 90% 5% -15.0%
all 764 -5.5% -14.5% 90% 5% -15.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover218.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.5% 5% -15.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.7% 1% -23.1%
15% -30.2% 0% -30.5%
20% -37.0% 0% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$9 · ×0.05 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.43 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$127
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses688 / 76
Open positions0
Markets (closed)764 / 731
History coverage13d ⚠
Avg bet$9
Trades / day218.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 764 Trades
no open positions (71 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 18 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 18 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 18 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 18 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 18 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 18 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 18 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 18 $18 −$18 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 18 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $9 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $23 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 18 $19 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 18 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $24 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $29 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $28 +$2 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $4 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $4 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $3 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $3 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.00 · official $15.00 (match) · 3500 history records