Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd47f…169b sports 374 markets active 1h ago coverage 68d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$5,354 (-4%) realized −$5,275 · open −$79
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate78%289W / 83L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$386per market
Trades / day20.2pace
Fees−$582est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$721now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$200
7 days+$25
14 days−$454
30 days+$513
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% −$5,681
other 4% +$83
world 0% −$288
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.5% 89% 56% -8.5%
≤30d 79 -4.1% -13.2% 82% 52% -7.3%
≤90d 372 -8.1% -16.9% 78% 44% -13.2%
all 372 -8.1% -16.9% 78% 44% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -16.9% 44% -13.2%
10% ← realistic here -24.8% 13% -21.5%
15% -32.1% 5% -29.1%
20% -38.7% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
43% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$53 vs −$253 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$721
Realized−$5,275
Unrealized−$79
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses289 / 83
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$582
Open positions2
Markets (closed)372 / 374
History coverage68d
Avg bet$386
Trades / day20.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 372 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx Minnesota Lynx 87¢ 87¢ $400 $400 −$0 (-0%)
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks New York Liberty 84¢ 68¢ $400 $321 −$79 (-20%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 40 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Gigantes de Carolina Jun 21 $200 −$200 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury Jun 18 $100 +$8 +8%
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo Jun 18 $300 +$14 +4%
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 18 $287 +$31 +11%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $200 +$9 +5%
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun Jun 18 $301 +$49 +16%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $201 +$43 +21%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever Jun 17 $201 +$22 +11%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $378 +$50 +13%
FC Bayern Munchen vs. Alba Berlin Jun 14 $256 −$256 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $916 +$185 +20%
Atleticos de San German vs. Criollos de Caguas Jun 13 $104 +$1 +1%
Toronto Tempo vs. Washington Mystics Jun 13 $9 −$9 -100%
BC Zenit vs. Lokomotiv Kuban Jun 12 $184 +$16 +9%
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Indios de Mayaguez Jun 12 $194 +$6 +3%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $442 +$58 +13%
Connecticut Sun vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 11 $72 +$28 +39%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $190 −$190 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $186 +$14 +8%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-8.5) Jun 10 $269 +$32 +12%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 10 $387 +$113 +29%
Indiana Fever vs. Washington Mystics Jun 09 $169 −$69 -41%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $580 −$79 -14%
Spread: Knicks (-2.5) Jun 09 $54 −$53 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 163.5 Jun 09 $271 −$271 -100%
Indiana Fever vs. New York Liberty: O/U 173.5 Jun 08 $190 +$10 +5%
PortlandFire vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 08 $281 +$35 +12%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream: O/U 160.5 Jun 07 $96 +$4 +4%
Washington Mystics vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 07 $382 +$18 +5%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Jun 06 $177 +$24 +13%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $309 +$92 +30%
Connecticut Sun vs. Chicago Sky Jun 06 $440 +$61 +14%
Shanghai Sharks vs. Zhejiang Lions Jun 05 $937 +$165 +18%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-2.5) Jun 05 $156 +$44 +28%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Minnesota Lynx Jun 05 $338 +$62 +18%
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 170.5 Jun 05 $200 +$10 +5%
Spread: Minnesota Lynx (-3.5) Jun 05 $70 −$69 -99%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $100 +$4 +4%
Toronto Tempo vs. New York Liberty Jun 04 $602 +$83 +14%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 03 $301 +$37 +12%
Connecticut Sun vs. Atlanta Dream Jun 03 $702 +$76 +11%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 02 $252 +$49 +20%
Boca Juniors vs. Quimsa Jun 02 $262 +$38 +15%
Zhejiang Lions vs. Shanghai Sharks Jun 01 $143 +$9 +6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $855 +$46 +5%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $65 +$35 +54%
Alba Berlin vs. Brose Bamberg May 31 $17 +$3 +18%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Connecticut Sun May 31 $85 +$15 +18%
AEK vs. Olympiacos B.C. May 30 $14 −$13 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 89¢ $100 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 86¢ $100 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 88¢ $100 1h
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 75¢ $101 1h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 93¢ $100 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 77¢ $101 3h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 90¢ $100 4h
Washington Mystics vs. Minnesota Lynx BUY Minnesota Lynx 90¢ $100 4h
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 96¢ $100 25h
Cangrejeros de Santurce vs. Gigantes de Carolina BUY Cangrejeros de Santurce 96¢ $100 25h
Las Vegas Aces vs. Phoenix Mercury BUY Las Vegas Aces 92¢ $100 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 90¢ $86 3d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 90¢ $100 4d
Dallas Wings vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 90¢ $100 4d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 96¢ $100 4d
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY New York Liberty 95¢ $100 4d
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 96¢ $100 4d
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 96¢ $100 4d
Capitanes de Arecibo vs. Mets de Guaynabo BUY Capitanes de Arecibo 95¢ $100 4d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 95¢ $100 4d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 81¢ $101 4d
Washington Mystics vs. Connecticut Sun BUY Washington Mystics 82¢ $101 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 82¢ $101 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 91¢ $100 5d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 89¢ $100 5d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $100 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $100 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $89 6d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Golden State Valkyries 88¢ $89 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $720.63 · official $720.63 (match) · 1644 history records