Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T10:15:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd480…4377 world 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 583d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$925 (+4%) realized +$798 · open +$127
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate75%62W / 21L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown49%max
Avg bet$234per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$4,155now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$46
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$539
other 35% +$309
politics 15% −$21
crypto 6% +$58
sports 1% +$22
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-5.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +18.1% +6.9% 100% 50% +3.7%
≤30d 5 +14.1% +3.2% 80% 40% -4.9%
≤90d 7 +11.1% +0.5% 86% 29% -4.9%
all 83 +4.2% -5.7% 75% 39% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.7% 39% -5.8%
10% -14.8% 14% -14.8%
15% -23.0% 7% -23.0%
20% -30.5% 2% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% too few recent
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late +10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$42 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.88 per $1 lost it wins $1.88
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

583d coverage
Net worth$4,155
Realized+$798
Unrealized+$127
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses62 / 21
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions15
Markets (closed)83 / 98
History coverage583d
Avg bet$234
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown49%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 83 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 88¢ $1,370 $1,431 +$61 (+4%)
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $1,300 $1,337 +$37 (+3%)
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? No 96¢ 96¢ $900 $894 −$6 (-1%)
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? No 85¢ 94¢ $210 $232 +$22 (+11%)
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $101 $109 +$8 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 95¢ 100¢ $100 $105 +$5 (+5%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 52¢ 60¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? No 75¢ 86¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+14%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? No 76¢ 76¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? No 91¢ 88¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-3%)
Trump out as President before 2027? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-44%)
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 96¢ 96¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-0%)
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? No 93¢ 92¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? No 93¢ 90¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? Jun 26 $100 +$26 +26%
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? Jun 26 $200 +$19 +10%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Jun 24 $10 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 24 $1 $0 +33%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $400 −$9 -2%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? May 09 $10 $0 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by April 30, 2026? May 09 $10 +$1 +6%
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? Mar 14 $100 −$6 -6%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by December 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +5%
Trump says Moon Landing faked in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +5%
Zelensky resigns in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +7%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +14%
Trump x Putin Meeting in Hungary by Dec 31? Jan 02 $1 $0 +14%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +15%
Nord Stream pipeline turned on in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +18%
Will Alberta vote for independence in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +35%
OpenAI announces it has achieved AGI in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +39%
Will Donald Trump visit France in 2025? Jan 02 $200 +$40 +20%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy visit Russia in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +2%
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together in 2025? Jan 02 $1 $0 +3%
US recognizes Russian sovereignty over Ukraine? Jan 02 $302 −$43 -14%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by June 30, 2026? Dec 16 $570 +$48 +8%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada in 2025? Dec 13 $251 +$65 +26%
Will Donald Trump visit China in 2025? Dec 13 $200 +$87 +44%
Erdoğan out in 2025? Dec 13 $201 +$9 +4%
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands in 2025? Dec 13 $1,435 +$163 +11%
Will Donald Trump visit Belarus in 2025? Dec 13 $300 +$32 +11%
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025? Nov 27 $200 +$2 +1%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by December 31? Nov 23 $200 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump visit Russia in 2025? Nov 21 $691 +$104 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit Ukraine in 2025? Nov 21 $150 +$17 +11%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Nov 21 $211 −$2 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by November 30? Nov 21 $300 +$23 +8%
Nuclear weapon detonation in 2025? Nov 07 $318 +$7 +2%
Will Russia invade Finland in 2025? Oct 30 $1 $0 +2%
Ukraine joins NATO in 2025? Oct 30 $1 $0 +6%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 28 $100 +$24 +24%
Will Trump meet with Kim Jong Un in 2025? Oct 27 $200 −$38 -19%
Nothing Ever Happens: World Leader Out Edition Oct 25 $200 −$17 -8%
U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by December 31? Oct 23 $11 −$5 -45%
Will Trump send Tomahawk to Ukraine by October 31? Oct 19 $140 +$19 +14%
Gaza or Ukraine ceasefire first? Oct 09 $100 +$56 +56%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Oct 03 $10 −$3 -27%
Will Trump meet with Putin by October 31? Oct 03 $500 −$30 -6%
Will Trump meet with Putin by December 31? Oct 03 $300 +$9 +3%
Russia announces air truce by September 30? Oct 02 $201 +$17 +9%
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy by September 30? Oct 02 $702 +$150 +21%
Will the Party of Action and Solidarity win the most seats in the 2025 Sep 25 $10 +$1 +9%
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December Sep 06 $1,241 +$64 +5%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 06 $501 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $301 1h
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $126 1h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $300 1h
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky meet together before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $10 2h
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by August 31? BUY No 96¢ $900 2h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 5¢ $50 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 76¢ $10 2h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 5¢ $50 3h
Will United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliam BUY Yes 96¢ $1 3h
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $219 3h
Will the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats BUY Yes 2¢ $1 43h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $502 43h
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $10 43h
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $1 43h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $391 10d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 52¢ $10 10d
Trump, Putin, and Zelensky seen together before 2027? BUY No 93¢ $1 10d
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 10d
Will Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 10d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 60¢ $400 10d
Putin and Zelenskyy shake hands by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $10 48d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $100 95d
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027? BUY No 85¢ $200 95d
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $94 103d
Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $100 104d
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $100 104d
Ukraine hits Moscow by March 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $100 104d
European country agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $100 104d
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? BUY No 75¢ $10 104d
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $10 104d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,155.18 · official $4,155.18 (match) · 590 history records