Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T07:40:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd481…af35 other 41 markets active 9d ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$5,927 (-5%) realized −$5,927 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate29%11W / 27L
Whale WR20%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,691per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$99
30 days+$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% −$16
world 25% +$167
economics 23% −$5,872
politics 18% −$182
other 8% −$16
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-20.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 +0.5% -9.1% 20% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 9 +0.3% -9.3% 22% 0% -9.3%
all 38 -11.7% -20.1% 29% 13% -15.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -20.1% 13% -15.2%
10% ← realistic here -27.8% 8% -23.3%
15% -34.8% 8% -30.7%
20% -41.2% 8% -37.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 65% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
55% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 20% (≥$5,735) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$228 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized−$5,927
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses11 / 27
Whale WR (big bets)20%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)38 / 41
History coverage615d
Avg bet$2,691
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $9 $9 −$0 (-0%)
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? No 99¢ 99¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $4,100 −$5 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $4,051 −$6 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $4,111 −$7 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me Jun 20 $4,112 −$6 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? Jun 20 $4,000 +$124 +3%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $4,000 −$5 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 17 $5,821 −$6 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee May 17 $4,003 +$16 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $5,809 −$6 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m Mar 18 $5,768 −$5,768 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Mar 18 $2 +$2 +93%
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? Mar 18 $5,735 +$29 +0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $5,744 −$6 -0%
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 15 $5,767 −$6 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 11, 2026 (ET)? Feb 15 $5,814 −$5 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? Feb 15 $5,735 +$35 +1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m Feb 13 $5,700 −$6 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 13 $5,755 −$6 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Feb 13 $2 −$2 -99%
US strikes Iran by February 11, 2026? Feb 13 $5,830 −$12 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Feb 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? Feb 10 $2 +$1 +56%
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 30? Feb 10 $3 $0 +13%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Feb 10 $1,225 +$6 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Dec 27 $516 −$6 -1%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Aug 06 $99 $0 -0%
Will Gianluigi Donnarumma win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 06 $99 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after March 2025 meeting? Aug 06 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jul 04 $99 $0 -0%
Israel strike on Iran on June 29? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -100%
No change in Fed interest rates after May 2025 meeting? Jun 25 $10 +$7 +67%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 28 $88 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 28 $60 +$13 +21%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2024 meeting? Mar 09 $99 −$99 -100%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the Eastern Conference? Dec 19 $101 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Nov 08 $184 −$184 -100%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 29 $285 +$10 +4%
2024 Balance of Power: D Prez, R Senate, R House Oct 19 $170 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $4,095 8d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4,100 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $4,045 8d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $4,051 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,086 8d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4,101 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $4,105 8d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $4,111 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $4,106 8d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $4,112 8d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4,000 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $3,996 33d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $4,000 33d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee BUY Yes 100¢ $4,003 64d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5 66d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m BUY Yes 0¢ $5,768 103d
US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $5,735 134d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $5,505 134d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $5,555 134d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $5,744 134d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $5,755 134d
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 134d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $64 134d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5,734 134d
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5,809 134d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $5,809 134d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $5,821 134d
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 99¢ $8 134d
Will the Dallas Mavericks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $3 134d
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $5,735 135d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.78 · official $58.78 (match) · 234 history records