Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T21:09:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
D4 0xd489…7f08 weather 29 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14 (+1%) realized +$15 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate69%18W / 8L
Drawdown6%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day35.3pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$74now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% +$88
politics 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-7.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 26 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 19% -4.0%
≤30d 26 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 19% -4.0%
≤90d 26 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 19% -4.0%
all 26 +2.5% -7.3% 69% 19% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover35.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.3% 19% -4.0%
10% ← realistic here -16.1% 4% -13.2%
15% -24.2% 0% -21.5%
20% -31.7% 0% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
72% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$1 · ×5.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×13.06 per $1 lost it wins $13.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$74
Realized+$15
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses18 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)26 / 29
History coverage3d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day35.3
Drawdown6%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 29°C on June 21? No 93¢ 95¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 37°C on June 21? No 98¢ 98¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on June 21? No 92¢ 86¢ $25 $23 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $419 +$14 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? Jun 20 $72 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? Jun 20 $80 +$16 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? Jun 20 $57 +$10 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? Jun 20 $321 +$30 +10%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju Jun 20 $113 +$8 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 20? Jun 20 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $71 +$5 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$4 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 20? Jun 20 $37 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $12 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 20? Jun 20 $35 +$3 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 32°C on June 20? Jun 20 $36 +$3 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 80-81°F on June 20? Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on June 20? Jun 20 $7 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on June 20? Jun 20 $22 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $9 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 19? Jun 19 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 19? Jun 19 $10 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 18? Jun 18 $10 +$1 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? Jun 18 $50 −$1 -2%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $0 $0 -53%
2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House Jun 18 $1 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $255 2m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $37 2m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $8 2m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 100¢ $16 3m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $325 13m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $10 17m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $177 46m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 80¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $60 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? SELL No 99¢ $90 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju SELL No 99¢ $120 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 81¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 93¢ $107 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 80-81°F on Ju BUY No 83¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 88¢ $22 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $7 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $33 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $26 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 93¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 86-87°F on June 20? BUY No 97¢ $250 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 84¢ $4 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 89¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 83¢ $21 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 88-89°F on June 20? BUY No 92¢ $267 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 20? BUY No 73¢ $18 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $73.62 · official $73.62 (match) · 101 history records