Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T01:25:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

D4
0xd48a…6e90
sports · 385 markets active 5h ago
0.0score
−$1,608,012 -63%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,606,277 · open −$1,497
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Possible transfer/wash account
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$136,702
Realized−$1,606,277
Unrealized−$1,497
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses225 / 435
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$32,388
Open positions49
Markets (closed)660 / 385
History coverage20d
Avg bet$6,610
Trades / day157.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 49 History 660 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,683,683
7 days−$1,642,565
14 days−$1,629,593
30 days−$1,606,277
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 83¢ 99¢ $11,500 $13,656 +$2,156 (+19%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Tampa Bay Rays 42¢ 57¢ $7,320 $10,017 +$2,698 (+37%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 77¢ 96¢ $7,850 $9,790 +$1,941 (+25%)
Milwaukee Brewers vs. St. Louis Cardinals Milwaukee Brewers 50¢ 64¢ $7,316 $9,365 +$2,049 (+28%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 72¢ 79¢ $7,411 $8,161 +$750 (+10%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Los Angeles Angels 50¢ 48¢ $7,316 $7,097 −$219 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 49¢ 48¢ $7,316 $7,092 −$224 (-3%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 60¢ 57¢ $7,316 $7,011 −$305 (-4%)
Will AJ Dybantsa be the first pick in the 2026 NBA draft? Yes 84¢ 85¢ $5,555 $5,623 +$68 (+1%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 65¢ 65¢ $5,217 $5,207 −$10 (-0%)
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Yes 51¢ 48¢ $4,823 $4,532 −$291 (-6%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? Yes 63¢ 66¢ $3,444 $3,649 +$205 (+6%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 64¢ 48¢ $4,400 $3,334 −$1,066 (-24%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 64¢ 90¢ $2,357 $3,315 +$958 (+41%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $3,344 $3,273 −$71 (-2%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 72¢ $2,300 $2,565 +$265 (+12%)
Predict.fun FDV above $600M one day after launch? No 84¢ 58¢ $3,700 $2,559 −$1,141 (-31%)
Predict.fun FDV above $500M one day after launch? No 74¢ 51¢ $3,700 $2,551 −$1,149 (-31%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 83¢ 98¢ $2,000 $2,372 +$372 (+19%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 16¢ $2,000 $2,364 +$364 (+18%)
Will Mexico advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 92¢ 98¢ $2,222 $2,352 +$130 (+6%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 93¢ 100¢ $2,000 $2,141 +$141 (+7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 17¢ $2,000 $2,082 +$82 (+4%)
Predict.fun FDV above $400M one day after launch? No 65¢ 35¢ $3,700 $1,992 −$1,708 (-46%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 69¢ 66¢ $2,000 $1,898 −$102 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Minnesota Twins vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? Jun 14 $2,004 −$2,004 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 14 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-05? Jun 14 $1,777 −$1,777 -100%
San Francisco Giants vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 14 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Will Hull City AFC vs. Middlesbrough FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $810 −$810 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder: O/U 214.5 Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Spread: Pistons (-3.5) Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
FC Internazionale Milano vs. Parma Calcio 1913: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,004 −$2,004 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $7,146 −$7,146 -100%
FC Lorient vs. RC Strasbourg Alsace: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,993 −$1,993 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in April? Jun 14 $979 −$979 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SV Werder Bremen: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $2,007 −$2,007 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
US Cremonese vs. SS Lazio: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,149 −$2,149 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-04-27? Jun 14 $1,981 −$1,981 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ryan Spann vs. Marcus Buchecha (Heavyweight, Prelims) Jun 14 $3,134 −$3,134 -100%
Cagliari Calcio vs. Atalanta BC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $1,973 −$1,973 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $1,100 −$1,100 -100%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev Jun 14 $9,999 −$9,999 -100%
Spread: Nuggets (-10.5) Jun 14 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Athletics Jun 14 $7,314 −$7,314 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-3.5) Jun 14 $7,316 −$7,316 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers: O/U 210.5 Jun 14 $5,480 −$5,480 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jun 14 $700 −$700 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $7,347 −$7,347 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-02? Jun 14 $2,000 −$2,000 -100%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $7,318 −$7,318 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors: O/U 219.5 Jun 14 $6,498 −$6,498 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 14 $7,315 −$7,315 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 14 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins Jun 14 $7,317 −$7,317 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 14 $7,319 −$7,319 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 14 $600 −$600 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 14 $7,460 −$7,460 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 93% +$94,487
other 7% +$13,188
world 0% +$93
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Switzerland (-2.5) BUY Qatar 62¢ $708 5h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $303 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $203 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 54¢ $5,069 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $400 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $2 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $4 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $257 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $145 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $4 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 5h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 5h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $27 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $5 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $8 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $3 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $416 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $5 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $10 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $4 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $1 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $2 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $5 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $21 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $7 6h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 42¢ $18 6h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Boston Red Sox 52¢ $1 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-48.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 410 -69.1% -72.0% 18% 16% -68.9%
≤30d 660 -42.5% -48.0% 34% 30% -44.5%
≤90d 660 -42.5% -48.0% 34% 30% -44.5%
all 660 -42.5% -48.0% 34% 30% -44.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover157.9 tr/day
realistic slip~18%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -48.0% 30% -44.5%
10% -52.9% 28% -49.8%
15% ← realistic here -57.5% 24% -54.7%
20% -61.7% 21% -59.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $136,702.12 · official $136,702.12 (match) · 3500 history records