Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T09:34:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd48c…9e7d politics 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$1,819 (-2%) realized −$1,820 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate12%10W / 76L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,057per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$665now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$2
14 days−$6
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 40% −$46
other 40% −$156
sports 11% −$1,624
world 4% −$4
economics 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
crypto 1% +$3
culture 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-13.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 23 -0.1% -9.6% 9% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 54 -11.2% -19.7% 6% 0% -12.9%
all 86 -4.9% -13.9% 12% 3% -11.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.9% 3% -11.4%
10% -22.2% 3% -19.9%
15% -29.7% 2% -27.7%
20% -36.6% 2% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 80% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,312) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$27 · ×0.63 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$665
Realized−$1,820
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses10 / 76
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage114d
Avg bet$1,057
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $664 $665 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 26 $250 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 26 $314 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $245 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $1,154 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 19 $363 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $211 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,054 −$2 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $912 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 12 $1,913 −$3 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $3,405 −$4 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $2,328 −$3 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 07 $1,263 −$1 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,247 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,305 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $1,253 −$2 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,656 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 04 $525 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 04 $37 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in May? Jun 04 $531 +$2 +0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $800 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $1,546 −$2 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $672 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 27 $768 −$1 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 24 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 24 $495 −$1 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 23 $1,816 −$2 -0%
Will the Washington Nationals win the 2026 World Series? May 23 $676 −$1 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 07 $1,355 −$2 -0%
Will Stephen Cloobeck win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 07 $1,320 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,205 −$2 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,248 −$2 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 05 $1,312 −$2 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju May 05 $1,321 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 05 $1,316 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 01 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Apr 30 $431 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me Apr 30 $852 +$2 +0%
Will Latvia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 29 $363 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $373 $0 +0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 28 $411 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 22 $1,208 −$1 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 21 $4,477 −$5 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 17 $1,098 −$1 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $1,031 −$3 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Apr 07 $216 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 07 $1,238 −$2 -0%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $62 −$62 -100%
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $53 −$53 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $250 1h
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $250 3h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $314 6h
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $314 9h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $364 22h
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $365 25h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $245 6d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $563 7d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $563 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $17 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $25 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $312 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $8 7d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $363 7d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $210 8d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $211 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $664 9d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 12d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 12d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $911 13d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $912 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,152 14d
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,154 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,069 14d
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,070 14d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,008 17d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,010 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $1,262 18d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $1,263 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $665.25 · official $665.25 (match) · 272 history records