Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:21:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
D4 0xd48e…acf3 sports 68 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$36 (-1%) realized −$38 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%26W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$302now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$13
14 days+$100
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$61
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-14.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 50% -6.5%
≤30d 32 +0.5% -9.1% 44% 44% -8.2%
≤90d 62 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 42% -11.7%
all 62 -5.5% -14.5% 42% 42% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.5% 42% -11.7%
10% -22.7% 42% -20.2%
15% -30.1% 42% -27.9%
20% -37.0% 42% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$41 · ×1.33 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.96 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$302
Realized−$38
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses26 / 36
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions6
Markets (closed)62 / 68
History coverage63d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Kansas City Royals 46¢ 86¢ $50 $93 +$43 (+86%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Miami Marlins 48¢ 60¢ $50 $62 +$12 (+24%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Chicago White Sox 49¢ 47¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals San Diego Padres 47¢ 44¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 45¢ 3¢ $50 $3 −$47 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 34 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $51 +$51 +101%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $51 +$60 +117%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 11 $51 +$49 +97%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $51 +$53 +105%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $51 −$50 -98%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Athletics vs. Houston Astros Jun 08 $51 +$49 +97%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 08 $51 +$96 +188%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 05 $51 +$116 +226%
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 04 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners Jun 04 $51 +$63 +124%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 04 $51 +$63 +124%
Atlanta Braves vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 03 $51 +$56 +109%
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals Jun 03 $51 −$50 -99%
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets May 31 $51 −$50 -98%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Toronto Blue Jays May 25 $51 +$77 +152%
Athletics vs. San Diego Padres May 25 $51 +$77 +152%
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Mets vs. Miami Marlins May 24 $51 −$50 -98%
Kansas City Royals vs. St. Louis Cardinals May 20 $51 +$53 +105%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Minnesota Twins May 20 $51 +$60 +119%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Los Angeles Angels May 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Chicago Cubs vs. Atlanta Braves May 15 $51 +$81 +158%
Detroit Tigers vs. New York Mets May 14 $50 −$50 -99%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Cleveland Guardians May 13 $51 −$50 -98%
Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals May 11 $51 +$56 +109%
Athletics vs. Baltimore Orioles May 11 $51 +$49 +97%
Athletics vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 08 $51 +$60 +119%
New York Mets vs. Colorado Rockies May 08 $51 +$65 +129%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Baltimore Orioles vs. New York Yankees May 04 $51 −$50 -98%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Athletics May 04 $51 +$56 +109%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Washington Nationals May 04 $51 +$65 +129%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Chicago Cubs May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Atlanta Braves vs. Colorado Rockies May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
San Francisco Giants vs. Tampa Bay Rays May 03 $51 −$50 -98%
New York Yankees vs. Texas Rangers Apr 30 $10 +$10 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 45¢ $51 1h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Tampa Bay Rays 41¢ $51 1h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY San Diego Padres 47¢ $51 1h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Kansas City Royals 46¢ $51 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 48¢ $51 1h
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox BUY Texas Rangers 49¢ $51 2d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 45¢ $51 2d
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 48¢ $51 2d
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants BUY Chicago Cubs 42¢ $51 2d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 49¢ $51 6d
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 43¢ $51 6d
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets BUY St. Louis Cardinals 42¢ $51 6d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 48¢ $51 7d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 41¢ $51 7d
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants BUY San Francisco Giants 50¢ $51 7d
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY Cincinnati Reds 43¢ $51 10d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $51 10d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 44¢ $51 10d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $51 10d
Athletics vs. Houston Astros BUY Athletics 50¢ $51 10d
Los Angeles Angels vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Angels 34¢ $51 10d
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Atlanta Braves BUY Toronto Blue Jays 30¢ $51 13d
San Diego Padres vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY San Diego Padres 34¢ $51 13d
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins BUY Chicago White Sox 44¢ $51 14d
Miami Marlins vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $51 14d
New York Mets vs. Seattle Mariners BUY New York Mets 44¢ $51 14d
Minnesota Twins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Minnesota Twins 41¢ $51 17d
Kansas City Royals vs. Texas Rangers BUY Kansas City Royals 49¢ $51 17d
Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Detroit Tigers 45¢ $51 17d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Seattle Mariners BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 43¢ $51 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $302.43 · official $302.44 (match) · 97 history records