Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:38:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd48f…2132 world 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,443 (+10%) realized +$645 · open +$798
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate51%20W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$246per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$9,678now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days+$48
14 days+$43
30 days+$241
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 41% +$1,765
other 32% −$830
crypto 6% −$181
economics 6% +$37
tech 5% −$399
politics 4% +$93
sports 3% +$575
culture 2% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -58.3% -62.3% 25% 25% -0.7%
≤30d 26 -10.1% -18.6% 46% 42% -4.1%
≤90d 39 +2.1% -7.7% 51% 44% -4.0%
all 39 +2.1% -7.7% 51% 44% -4.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 44% -4.0%
10% -16.5% 41% -13.2%
15% -24.6% 36% -21.5%
20% -32.0% 28% -29.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$91 vs −$82 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$9,678
Realized+$645
Unrealized+$798
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses20 / 19
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions17
Markets (closed)39 / 56
History coverage42d
Avg bet$246
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 17 History 39 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 38¢ 96¢ $629 $1,572 +$943 (+150%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 85¢ 96¢ $1,093 $1,244 +$151 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 94¢ $790 $879 +$88 (+11%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 80¢ $793 $830 +$37 (+5%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? No 75¢ 74¢ $793 $777 −$16 (-2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? No 74¢ 74¢ $729 $726 −$3 (-0%)
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? No 61¢ 60¢ $662 $655 −$7 (-1%)
Will Israel and Lebanon hold a diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 83¢ 98¢ $498 $589 +$91 (+18%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? Yes 80¢ 62¢ $583 $455 −$127 (-22%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $320 $450 +$130 (+41%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 74¢ 73¢ $420 $416 −$4 (-1%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? Yes 69¢ 32¢ $735 $336 −$399 (-54%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $264 $266 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $200 $225 +$25 (+12%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 60¢ 60¢ $191 $193 +$2 (+1%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 45¢ 15¢ $141 $47 −$94 (-67%)
Will Trump speak to Xi Jinping in June? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $40 $19 −$21 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 21 $12 −$6 -45%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 17 $60 −$60 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in June 2026? Jun 16 $161 +$51 +32%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $218 +$102 +47%
Kash Patel out by June 30? Jun 14 $122 +$64 +52%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $260 +$284 +109%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $163 +$594 +364%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $265 +$20 +8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $352 −$203 -58%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $504 −$502 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $360 −$360 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $182 +$98 +54%
Will Donald Trump not announce a next United States Attorney General b Jun 06 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce Todd Blanche as the next United States Atto Jun 04 $191 +$221 +115%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? May 31 $127 +$49 +38%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 31 $40 −$17 -41%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5 May 30 $101 +$71 +70%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 28 $200 −$134 -67%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $360 +$153 +42%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 25 $103 +$17 +17%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 300k and 350k? May 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 20 $11 +$14 +128%
Will Rue Bennett die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 19 $16 −$3 -18%
Arsenal FC vs. Burnley FC: O/U 2.5 May 18 $10 +$12 +118%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 450k and 500k? May 18 $93 +$7 +7%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 500k and 550k? May 18 $83 −$40 -48%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 400k and 450k? May 18 $16 +$9 +59%
Will "Iceman" - Drake debut week album sales be between 350k and 400k? May 18 $12 +$15 +131%
Will Aaron Rai win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $32 +$31 +99%
Will Jon Rahm win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $21 +$1 +6%
Will Matti Schmid win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 17 $22 −$13 -59%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 +$3 +29%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $10 −$7 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 13 $12 −$5 -40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $56 41m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $3 46m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 6¢ $271 49m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $533 53m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 55m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $3 55m
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $2 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $1 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 69¢ $706 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 60¢ $191 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 74¢ $420 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $793 1h
Romanian PM Bolojan out by June 30? BUY No 61¢ $672 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 73¢ $130 1h
GPT-5.6 released by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 1h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $803 1h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 6h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY Yes 3¢ $12 6h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 67¢ $79 10h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 78¢ $24 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 77¢ $224 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? SELL Yes 78¢ $22 11h
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 80¢ $155 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 80¢ $97 3d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 38¢ $629 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 80¢ $16 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 80¢ $642 3d
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? BUY Yes 80¢ $51 3d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $848 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $245 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9,677.74 · official $9,677.74 (match) · 171 history records