Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:39:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd490…8d59 sports 387 markets active 7h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$932 (-5%) realized −$928 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate49%189W / 197L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day32.1pace
Fees−$313est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$18now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$219
7 days−$752
14 days−$735
30 days−$977
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 52 -29.6% -36.3% 38% 37% -39.7%
≤30d 177 -8.8% -17.5% 48% 47% -18.7%
≤90d 386 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 48% -15.3%
all 386 -2.9% -12.1% 49% 48% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover32.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.1% 48% -15.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.5% 48% -23.4%
15% -28.2% 47% -30.8%
20% -35.3% 44% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$50 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$18
Realized−$928
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses189 / 197
Est. fees paid−$313
Open positions1
Markets (closed)386 / 387
History coverage76d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day32.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 386 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 43¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $22 +$14 +64%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 16 $67 −$67 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $67 +$49 +73%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $22 −$22 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 15 $40 −$40 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $22 +$16 +71%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $22 +$16 +71%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $22 +$28 +126%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $33 +$18 +55%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $22 +$20 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $22 +$17 +77%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 13 $67 +$24 +36%
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 13 $22 +$19 +83%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $67 +$85 +126%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 13 $67 +$42 +63%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 12 $67 $0 +1%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $22 +$19 +86%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $22 +$17 +76%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $22 +$19 +86%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres Jun 11 $22 −$22 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 11 $67 −$67 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 11 $67 +$100 +149%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $67 +$107 +159%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $18 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 53¢ $18 6h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $4 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $4 16h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $15 22h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $15 22h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $7 22h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 26h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $4 26h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 27h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $4 27h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $9 27h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $13 28h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $9 28h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $13 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 29h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $4 29h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $17 30h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $13 31h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $4 31h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $13 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $13 33h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $4 33h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $4 34h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $13 35h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $23 44h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $23 44h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $23 44h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $23 44h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics SELL Athletics 93¢ $23 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18.27 · official $18.27 (match) · 2743 history records