Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:34:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd492…7469 sports 264 markets active 2d ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,964 (-11%) realized −$1,996 · open +$32
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate50%131W / 129L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$184est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$87
7 days−$722
14 days−$418
30 days−$1,706
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$1,693
other 30% −$475
finance 3% −$7
world 1% −$41
crypto 0% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -9.4% -18.1% 48% 45% -19.6%
≤30d 115 -8.4% -17.1% 53% 48% -22.9%
≤90d 233 -8.2% -17.0% 51% 46% -21.5%
all 260 -8.1% -16.9% 50% 45% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 45% -21.4%
10% -24.8% 37% -28.9%
15% -32.1% 30% -35.8%
20% -38.7% 21% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$24 vs −$42 · ×0.57 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$212
Realized−$1,996
Unrealized+$32
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses131 / 129
Est. fees paid−$184
Open positions4
Markets (closed)260 / 264
History coverage102d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 260 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $81 +$51 (+171%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $50 $39 −$11 (-21%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $50 $35 −$15 (-29%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$46 -75%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $86 −$25 -29%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $61 +$24 +40%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $25 −$18 -69%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $52 +$52 +101%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $45 +$5 +10%
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $111 −$67 -61%
Portugal leading at halftime? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 −$19 -38%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $78 +$73 +93%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $398 −$320 -80%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $222 +$177 +80%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $234 −$14 -6%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $86 −$59 -69%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $658 −$449 -68%
Mehdi Taremi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $153 −$153 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $554 +$151 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $484 +$156 +32%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $202 −$202 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $509 +$99 +20%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $25 +$11 +44%
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $252 +$105 +41%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $476 +$149 +31%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $654 −$310 -48%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 15 $41 +$62 +152%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $31 +$51 +168%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $51 +$47 +93%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Sweden O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $352 +$80 +23%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$16 +79%
Kai Havertz: 1+ goals Jun 14 $25 +$18 +70%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $56 +$59 +105%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $7 −$7 -100%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $35 +$19 +54%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$45 +88%
United States vs. Paraguay: United States O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $151 +$44 +29%
United States to score first vs. Paraguay? Jun 13 $152 +$104 +69%
Libema Open: Zeynep Sonmez vs Magda Linette Jun 12 $91 −$42 -46%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 11 $15 +$14 +92%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins Jun 11 $25 +$7 +28%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $56 +$23 +41%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 10 $10 +$9 +89%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 10 $60 +$12 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 13¢ $15 36h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $61 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 52¢ $61 38h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $86 46h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $61 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $8 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $25 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $25 2d
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $52 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 74¢ $50 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 66¢ $45 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 26¢ $44 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $111 2d
Portugal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 2d
HSBC Championships: Adrian Mannarino vs Arthur Fery BUY Adrian Mannarino 42¢ $132 2d
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 SELL Over 2.5 28¢ $32 2d
Adrian Mannarino vs. Arthur Fery: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Over 2.5 44¢ $51 2d
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $78 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 13¢ $78 3d
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $398 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 55¢ $222 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes 39¢ $220 3d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 40¢ $234 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals SELL Yes 16¢ $27 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 SELL Over 20¢ $208 3d
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals BUY Yes 49¢ $86 3d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $658 3d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: IR Iran O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $705 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $212.25 · official $212.25 (match) · 620 history records