Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:51:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd493…0c64 economics 7 markets active 3h ago coverage 68d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$573 (-75%) realized −$367 · open −$206
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -79% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -81% what you keep after slip
Net edge-81%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$110per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$115now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 68d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% −$305
economics 44% −$206
crypto 8% −$60
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-80.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -85.1%
≤30d 2 -57.4% -61.4% 0% 0% -85.1%
≤90d 4 -78.7% -80.7% 0% 0% -88.6%
all 4 -78.7% -80.7% 0% 0% -88.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -80.7% 0% -88.6%
10% -82.6% 0% -89.7%
15% -84.2% 0% -90.7%
20% -85.8% 0% -91.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -87% too few recent
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -79% · $-wt -87% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$91 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

68d coverage
Net worth$115
Realized−$367
Unrealized−$206
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 4
Open positions3
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage68d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $258 $99 −$158 (-61%)
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $38 $10 −$29 (-75%)
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $25 $6 −$19 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $62 −$9 -15%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $263 −$257 -97%
Will SS Lazio win on 2026-04-13? Apr 13 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Apr 10 $65 −$60 -93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $115.18 · official $115.18 (match) · 12 history records