Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:43:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd496…4956 crypto 141 markets active 5h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$418 (-4%) realized −$418 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate21%30W / 111L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$37
14 days−$52
30 days−$157
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 74% −$272
finance 14% −$72
other 7% −$68
crypto 2% −$12
economics 1% −$3
politics 1% −$4
tech 1% −$3
sports 0% −$2
culture 0% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 0% 0% -24.3%
≤30d 30 -12.1% -20.5% 7% 0% -12.6%
≤90d 105 -28.1% -34.9% 9% 4% -13.6%
all 141 -15.7% -23.7% 21% 17% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 17% -13.3%
10% -31.0% 16% -21.6%
15% -37.7% 16% -29.2%
20% -43.8% 14% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$418
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)21%
Wins / losses30 / 111
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)141 / 141
History coverage116d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 141 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 18 $59 −$2 -3%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? Jun 16 $32 −$9 -29%
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $16 −$12 -75%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $75 −$7 -9%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $14 −$3 -22%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $28 −$4 -14%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $6 $0 -2%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 11 $29 −$1 -4%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $55 −$6 -11%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $30 −$3 -10%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $9 −$4 -47%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 4? Jun 04 $25 −$2 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? May 29 $332 −$9 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 30? May 29 $3 $0 +2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $82 −$1 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $77 −$2 -2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? May 27 $405 −$1 -0%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on May 26? May 26 $57 −$28 -50%
Solstice FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 25 $8 −$3 -33%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 23 $96 −$1 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 26? May 23 $110 −$4 -4%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 23 $17 +$1 +6%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 23 $50 −$2 -4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 22 $8 −$1 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 22 $172 −$4 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 21 $206 −$2 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $2,060 −$18 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 31? May 21 $256 −$4 -2%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through June 30? May 20 $124 −$24 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 27? May 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 18 $82 −$4 -5%
Will there be between 0 and 10 average daily transits of the Strait of May 17 $174 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? May 17 $66 −$2 -3%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 15 $206 −$7 -4%
Cap on gambling loss deductions repealed before 2027? May 14 $74 −$6 -9%
Clarity Act signed into law in 2026? May 12 $254 −$6 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 12 $144 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 11 $234 −$8 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 10 $312 −$11 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 08 $51 −$6 -13%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 08 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 07 $0 $0 +5%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 05 $114 −$3 -2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 8? May 04 $67 −$4 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in May? May 02 $24 −$3 -14%
Gold (XAUUSD) Up or Down on May 1? May 01 $17 +$2 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Apr 27 $43 −$1 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 26 $252 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? Apr 26 $94 −$4 -4%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 25 $548 −$67 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL No 58¢ $57 5h
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on BUY No 59¢ $59 5h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $5 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $1 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 23¢ $7 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 32¢ $32 2d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 4¢ $3 3d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 4¢ $1 3d
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 16¢ $16 3d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $23 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $34 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 67¢ $5 4d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY No 75¢ $75 4d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $0 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 10¢ $1 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $1 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $3 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 11¢ $6 5d
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 14¢ $14 5d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $8 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 6d
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $28 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? SELL Down 38¢ $6 6d
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? BUY Down 38¢ $3 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 789 history records