Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T08:31:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
D4 0xd496…9a01 politics 18 markets active 2h ago coverage 110d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate11%2W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$114per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 37% −$1
other 32% $0
world 16% $0
economics 10% $0
tech 5% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 25% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.5% 15% 0% -9.5%
all 18 -0.1% -9.6% 11% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

110d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)11%
Wins / losses2 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)18 / 18
History coverage110d
Avg bet$114
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 18 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $216 +$1 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 02 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 31 $107 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? May 22 $107 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by May 31? May 20 $107 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $107 $0 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? May 14 $108 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $108 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Apr 15 $109 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 12 $109 $0 +0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 02 $109 $0 +0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 26 $110 −$1 -1%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $110 $0 +0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 12 $110 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 07 $110 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 1h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $107 13h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 100¢ $107 22d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 100¢ $107 23d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee SELL No 99¢ $107 24d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee BUY No 99¢ $107 24d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 27d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 28d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $107 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $0 33d
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $97 33d
Trump out as President by May 31? SELL No 100¢ $107 35d
Trump out as President by May 31? BUY No 100¢ $107 35d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $107 37d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $107 37d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL No 99¢ $107 39d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $108 40d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $108 42d
Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $108 42d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $108 45d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $108 45d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no SELL No 99¢ $109 70d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no BUY No 99¢ $109 71d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $109 74d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $15 74d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $32 74d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $28 74d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $31 74d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $2 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records