Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:41:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
D4 0xd496…4108 crypto 921 markets active 0h ago coverage 69d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$209 (-0%) realized −$224 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate53%489W / 431L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$183per market
Trades / day30.5pace
Fees−$47est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$53now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 69d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 96% −$5,203
sports 2% −$103
other 2% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -21.9% -29.4% 45% 45% -22.7%
≤30d 11 -21.9% -29.4% 45% 45% -22.7%
≤90d 920 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 51% -12.0%
all 920 -5.2% -14.2% 53% 51% -12.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.2% 51% -12.0%
10% ← realistic here -22.4% 46% -20.4%
15% -29.9% 40% -28.1%
20% -36.8% 31% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$120 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$53
Realized−$224
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses489 / 431
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$47
Open positions1
Markets (closed)920 / 921
History coverage69d
Avg bet$183
Trades / day30.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 920 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Under 36¢ 50¢ $38 $53 +$15 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 111 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 18 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 18 $93 +$56 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 18 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $103 −$77 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 18 $102 −$94 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$82 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 18 $102 +$37 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 18 $154 +$89 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $207 −$123 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 18 $121 +$60 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 09 $88 −$85 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 09 $104 −$81 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 09 $105 −$38 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Liverpool FC vs. Chelsea FC: O/U 3.5 May 09 $202 +$101 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET May 07 $51 −$49 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 07 $47 +$32 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET May 07 $8 +$11 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 07 $161 −$161 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 07 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 07 $104 +$96 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 07 $207 −$100 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET May 07 $11 −$8 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET May 07 $316 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET May 07 $105 +$23 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 07 $104 −$79 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET May 07 $102 −$100 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET May 07 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 06 $104 +$126 +121%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET May 06 $103 +$60 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET May 06 $103 +$59 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET May 06 $103 +$52 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 06 $77 +$60 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET May 06 $103 +$31 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 06 $52 +$53 +103%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 3.5 May 06 $51 +$75 +148%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 2 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $87 −$84 -97%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 2 - 1 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $113 −$110 -97%
Exact Score: Nottingham Forest FC 1 - 1 Aston Villa FC? Apr 30 $164 −$160 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30? Apr 30 $387 −$25 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 30 $206 −$196 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 30 $206 −$193 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 30 $414 +$350 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Apr 30 $312 −$312 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 30 $310 −$203 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 30 $207 −$200 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 30 $313 −$100 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 30 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 30 $309 −$298 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 36¢ $39 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $5 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $149 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $104 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Down 16¢ $26 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET SELL Down 6¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $139 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $243 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Up 17¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 26¢ $55 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $181 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $121 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $88 40d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET SELL Down 10¢ $24 40d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $53.25 · official $50.09 · 2276 history records