Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T05:00:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd498…a6c5 weather 461 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d ⚠
BOTnot copyable weather specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d only
✗ bot/MM pace (1255 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$712 (-5%) realized −$652 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate8%37W / 402L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day1255.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$554now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 94% −$858
other 6% −$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1255 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 439 -6.1% -15.0% 8% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 439 -6.1% -15.0% 8% 0% -15.1%
≤90d 439 -6.1% -15.0% 8% 0% -15.1%
all 439 -6.1% -15.0% 8% 0% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1255.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.0% 0% -15.1%
10% ← realistic here -23.1% 0% -23.2%
15% -30.6% 0% -30.6%
20% -37.4% 0% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 44% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$554
Realized−$652
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses37 / 402
Open positions22
Markets (closed)439 / 461
History coverage3d ⚠
Avg bet$33
Trades / day1255.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 439 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 50¢ 80¢ $50 $80 +$30 (+60%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 24? No 86¢ 81¢ $51 $48 −$3 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 23? No 81¢ 72¢ $49 $44 −$5 (-10%)
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 24? No 74¢ 72¢ $44 $43 −$2 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 23°C on June 23? No 81¢ 69¢ $49 $42 −$7 (-14%)
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 37°C on June 24? No 72¢ 68¢ $43 $41 −$2 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 23? No 71¢ 62¢ $43 $37 −$5 (-13%)
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 74-75°F on June 23? No 67¢ 66¢ $35 $34 −$1 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 86-87°F on June 24? No 62¢ 58¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 20¢ $50 $20 −$30 (-60%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 24? No 78¢ 72¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 26°C on June 23? No 47¢ 48¢ $18 $19 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? No 74¢ 68¢ $18 $16 −$1 (-7%)
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 24? No 81¢ 81¢ $16 $16 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 23? No 79¢ 80¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 24? No 54¢ 53¢ $14 $14 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 68-69°F on June 23? No 74¢ 66¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? No 35¢ 38¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+10%)
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on June 24? No 66¢ 58¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 24? No 63¢ 62¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 23? No 75¢ 72¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-4%)
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 31°C on June 24? No 73¢ 72¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $10 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? Jun 23 $17 −$4 -26%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $94 −$4 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? Jun 23 $23 −$8 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? Jun 23 $52 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 24? Jun 23 $36 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C on June 24? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 24? Jun 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 25? Jun 23 $2 −$1 -27%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 24? Jun 23 $14 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $85 −$8 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 39°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $18 −$4 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 38°C on June 24? Jun 23 $52 −$2 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on June 24? Jun 23 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 36°C on June 24? Jun 23 $88 −$14 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 11°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 23? Jun 23 $10 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 29°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 34°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 −$2 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 24? Jun 23 $0 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $18 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 23? Jun 23 $18 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C on June 23? Jun 23 $19 −$1 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 35°C on June 23? Jun 23 $58 −$5 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $13 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 33°C on June 24? Jun 23 $6 −$1 -16%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 23? Jun 23 $33 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 36°C on June 23? Jun 23 $6 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 32°C on June 24? Jun 23 $9 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 24? Jun 23 $7 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 25°C on June 23? Jun 23 $36 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $8 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $73 −$2 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on June 24? Jun 23 $7 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 24? Jun 23 $4 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 82-83°F on June 23? Jun 23 $46 $0 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 26°C on June 23? Jun 23 $24 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 15°C on June 24? Jun 23 $19 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 23? Jun 23 $61 −$4 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 23? Jun 23 $119 −$4 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 28°C on June 24? Jun 23 $71 −$2 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 31°C on June 24? Jun 23 $13 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL Yes 28¢ $4 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? SELL Yes 21¢ $8 0m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 1m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 1m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 26°C on June 24? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? SELL No 22¢ $20 1m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? SELL Yes 16¢ $10 1m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 39°C on June 23? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 34¢ $7 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 34¢ $13 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $3 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 41°C on June 23? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2m
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on June 23? BUY No 36¢ $22 2m
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 23? BUY Yes 10¢ $6 2m
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 92-93°F on June 23? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 5m
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 25? BUY No 74¢ $18 5m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 24? SELL No 85¢ $51 6m
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL Yes 29¢ $9 6m
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 14°C on June 24? SELL Yes 21¢ $11 6m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 24? SELL No 73¢ $6 7m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $554.29 · official $554.73 (match) · 3500 history records