Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:13:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
D4 0xd499…0bff crypto 134 markets active 2d ago coverage 191d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$422 (-2%) realized −$422 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -20% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate53%71W / 63L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days−$64
14 days+$11
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 92% −$125
economics 3% +$56
other 2% −$1
politics 2% −$410
sports 1% +$38
world 0% +$10
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -52.6% -57.1% 32% 27% -60.6%
≤30d 41 -17.4% -25.2% 54% 34% -8.3%
≤90d 88 -34.4% -40.6% 44% 23% -70.3%
all 134 -20.1% -27.8% 53% 25% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.8% 25% -11.3%
10% -34.7% 16% -19.7%
15% -41.0% 15% -27.5%
20% -46.8% 13% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 43% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -67% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
54% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -20% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -42% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$40 vs −$52 · ×0.77 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

191d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$422
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses71 / 63
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)134 / 134
History coverage191d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 134 Trades
no open positions (14 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 16 $8 +$2 +28%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -96%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $3 +$2 +67%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju Jun 14 $5 +$3 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? Jun 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -96%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $3 +$2 +90%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +38%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $18 −$18 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians: O/U 7.5 Jun 10 $8 +$7 +90%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 8 to June 10, 2026? Jun 10 $122 +$8 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $14 +$1 +4%
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 06 $20 +$26 +129%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 +$9 +93%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $50 +$4 +7%
Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 06 $20 −$20 -98%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $27 +$15 +56%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Atlanta Braves: O/U 8.5 Jun 06 $10 +$10 +101%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 68-69°F on June 4? Jun 05 $13 +$31 +236%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 24? May 24 $19 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on May 24? May 24 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on May 23? May 23 $10 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026? May 22 $49 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on May 21? May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - May 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET May 18 $5 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 18 $65 +$5 +7%
XRP Up or Down - May 18, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +5%
BNB Up or Down - May 18, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET May 18 $5 $0 -1%
Solana Up or Down - May 18, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET May 18 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET May 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on January 1? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Solana be between $110 and $120 on December 25? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on December 7? May 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 15 to June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 29¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $2 2d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 40¢ $2 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 43¢ $1 3d
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 45¢ $5 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 59¢ $5 3d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $5 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $2 3d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 70-71°F on June 16? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car BUY Diego Lopes 59¢ $3 3d
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY Yes 59¢ $5 4d
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on June 13? BUY Yes 93¢ $5 4d
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY New York Yankees 52¢ $3 5d
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $3 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 70-71°F on June 12? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be 80°F or higher on June BUY Yes $5 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 12? BUY Yes $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 88-89°F on June 13? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 6d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $10 7d
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Los Angeles Angels 84¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 305 history records